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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Lowe who wrote (6694)	1/4/1999 1:09:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

LiPoly adoption rates. I think the spreadsheet numbers used are somewhat conservative. I really don't know what the market share will be this year, but by next year, LiPoly should take 15-20% of the laptop and cellphone markets. I would use a fast start out of the gate, because I think the technology will be fairly rapidly adopted in the top of the line units. The top line units are probably around 30% of the market. Public statements from laptop and cellphone manufacturers on using LiPoly indicate that adoption of LiPoly will be limited by the supply of these batteries. I would use 30% for the following year; this is consistent with the 30% market share Li-ion captured in these markets in the first three years of mass availability. Then ramp to 35% the following year, and then 40% by year five. Even with these smaller market share gains in the out years, the total number of units produced climbs significantly each year, due to the overall market growth rate of 25%. I suggest we decrease Valence's market share in years 3-5, to keep a conservative view of possible competition. Paul