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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (41841)	1/4/1999 2:44:00 PM
From: wily	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Hey, don't yell at me, I was only making a technical (albeit mistaken) point.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (41841)	1/4/1999 3:16:00 PM
From: DavidG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Skeeter, In 12 months the 256mbit chips are expected to be down to $150 to $200. Do you really believe crossover will occur at that time with those numbers. 64mbit chips have to be selling at $37.50 to $50 per chip...don't think so.<g> This is simple arithmetic.:-) DavidG

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (41841)	1/4/1999 3:19:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

skeeter, I don't get a chance to agree with you often but this is one case where you are right. The cost of a chip includes testing and packaging as well as the silicon. Thus eventually the higher density chips fall to a cheaper price per megabit than the lower density chips. You could make a 32MByte SIMM using 16 16MBit chips or 4 64MB chips, and I suppose with the proper configuration a single 256MBit chip, though I have never seen a SIMM with less than 2 chips. The only reasons for choosing one over the others would be heat, reliability, and cost, and of these cost is the main factor. There are still people using 4MB chips and 16MB chips, but today the "sweet spot" is 64MBit chips. In time, probably 18-30 months from now, 256MBit chips will have the lowest cost per megabit. By then 64MBit chips may be selling for about $5 and the 256MBit chips would be under $20. Remember this, however: memory is a commodity. Samsung argues that by being the first to mass produce 256MBit chips, they build early brand loyalty. In my opinion, this is bull. Price is what matters. If someone wants a 64MB chip today do they say "Samsung made them first, so I want a Samsung"? No, they go with whatever is cheapest. Thus the only reason for early production of the next generation chip is if the selling price exceeds the cost. The way I see it, you have a certain number of wafer starts a month, and you look at the current prices for 4MB, 16MB, SRAM, 64MB, and 256MB, and you look at your costs for these chips, and you produce the wafer mix that you expect to be the most profitable. The more profitable you are at a given generation, the less likely you are to make a quick switch to the next generation. Carl