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Technology Stocks : PSFT - Fiscal 1998 - Discussion for the next year -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay Rommel who wrote (4075)	1/4/1999 4:52:00 PM
From: Grabs	Respond to of 4509

We got pounded with snow. At least 2+ feet. Pretty messy! As far as predicting a bottom price for PSFT, or a recession, I think I'll pass. In terms of a recession, I think that ERP spending will not be as affected as other sectors when and if there is some kind of recession. These systems are often (i) critical for the enterprise and (ii) efficiency enhancing. Those types of expenditures are the last to go when you cut back IMO. I think the recession that everyone is worried about will come more in industrial sectors (which, some argue are already in recession: look at oil, agricultural, construction, etc) and in the consumer sector. Basically, I was not thinking recession when I posted, I was just trying to say that IMO, if there's a slowdown in 4Q98, 1Q99, and 2Q99 in ERP spending, that the pent up demand, combined with the passing of Y2k will propel the ERP sector again. One caveat is that the company which is most successful in reaching the middle market companies will perform the best. Grabs