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To: coug who wrote (11745)	1/5/1999 10:16:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 44573

coug, Looks like I was wrong about the open Lets see if 10:15 produces a move Here's another: Atlanta Fed Chief Sees Slow Growth By DAN SEWELL .c The Associated Press ATLANTA (AP) -- More economic growth is ahead in 1999, but it may not live up to the raised -- and unrealistic -- expectations many Americans have developed, a Federal Reserve official says. Jack Guynn, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, forecast slower but continued growth for the year. However, he expressed concern Monday about ''the institutionalization of unrealistic expectations.'' In a speech to the Atlanta Rotary Club, Guynn projected gross domestic product growth of some 2.5 percent, inflation around 2 percent, and unemployment just over 4.5 percent. That would be ''not the exceptional years of 1997 or 1998, perhaps, but a very good showing all the same.'' He said there needs to be ''a reality check,'' or an understanding that slower GDP growth isn't the same as slow GDP growth and slightly higher inflation isn't the same as accelerating inflation. To many Americans, he said, ''economic growth that's not exceptional, that's not spectacular, that's merely good, is coming to be seen as not quite good enough.'' ''Consumers, businesses, investors and policy-makers should not proceed as though they were,'' he said. ''Such a delusion could have real repercussions for the U.S. economy.'' He said governments at all levels need to continue budgetary restraint and not ''get addicted to extraordinary levels of revenue.'' Guynn's other caveat on his economic forecast was the assumption that Asia ''has finally bottomed out.'' But if Japan doesn't move toward recovery and the Asian malaise spreads to Latin America, ''all bets are off,'' he said. Guynn considers that ''a remote possibility.'' He noted that the 1998 U.S. economic performance came despite the Asian crisis, which he said demonstrates the economy's balance, momentum and low-inflation policies. ''The new year's more moderate level of economic growth, combined with ongoing low levels of inflation, ought to ensure that the economic expansion continues into the next millenium,'' Guynn said. AP-NY-01-05-99 0128EST