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Gold/Mining/Energy : Winspear Resources -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chad Barrett who wrote (11137)	1/5/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: teevee	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 26850

Hi Chad, In my 30 some odd years of experience as a "retail investor", gaps get filled about 98% of the time. This, IMO, is one of those rare exceptions, barring a major breakdown in the overall markets that catches everyone flat footed. regards, teevee

To: Chad Barrett who wrote (11137)	1/5/1999 3:43:00 PM
From: Charles Kalb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26850

Chad & teevee........On recent TA and filling gap at $3.50: I have been watching a standard error band (two standard deviations) on the Winspear chart. For a bit over three months (9/22 through 12/24)such an error band contained the price movements very nicely in relatively narrow bands around the linear regression line. I agree with Chad that the trading over the Holidays seems anomalous. For the four trading sessions between 12/29 and 1/4 the price bars broke through the upper error band. Generally this means one of two things. The first possibility is that the price is telling us that it wants to follow a more steeply climbing curve, in which case the original error bands must be allowed to widen significantly or the previous price history must be partially abandoned and a new, steeper, error band drawn. The other possibility is that the price excursion outside the bands is temporary and that, given a few days, the price will break back into the original error bands. In looking at this, I manually extended the bands beyond 12/24 without allowing them to grow wider by accommodating the possibly anamolous last four trading sessions. Given the weakness yesterday and today I would tend to believe that the price wants to get back to the original or possibly slightly wider error bands. In retrospect, the gap up to 4.80 at yesterday's open looks to me suspicious, as if the market makers knew that this latest leg up was running out of steam and they wanted to make the most out of the inevitable leg down. So, if one subscribes to the scenario that the price is returning to the error bands based on three months of bullish price history, my chart indicates that price would have to push below about 3.80 by this Thursday in order to drop below the extended upper standard error band. If price reached the linear regression line by Thursday (midway between the error bands) it would be close to 3.50 and could take out the gap that Chad referred to. Right now it looks like we will close near the low leaving us open for some additional decline tomorrow. A news release before Friday will of course make moot any such reading-of-the-tea-leaves TA. Charles