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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (7478)	1/6/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

>>is this retooling a viable alternative? I am beginning to think that the semi eq companies are trying to start a new chip war but no semi company is willing to fork out the money. They seem to be looking for alternatives that are less costly than that hoped for by the semi eq companies.<< Retooling is likely to be viable up to a point. Each piece of equipment operates somewhere between "I can do this easily" and "I can't do this at all." Retooling pushes equipment further toward "I can't do this," but it's impossible to say what the tradeoffs (cost vs reliability vs yield, etc) are without more information. >> If every fab choose to follow Samsung's route, how much revenue would that generate for the likes of AMAT?<< Another year like 1998, basically. I'm still standing by my mid-1999 recovery prediction, but some analysts are pushing it out to 3Q or 4Q 1999. Next week's ISS meeting should be interesting. (ISS being SEMI's annual forecast get-together.) As I've said before, we may see a stock shakeout when instant earnings recovery doesn't materialize. Then again, for anyone willing to pay nearly 400 bucks a share for AMZN, the semi equips probably look downright conservative... Katherine