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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jim Switz who wrote (4198)1/6/1999 8:12:00 AM
From: Starowl  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5944
 
Jim: There appear to be some fairly significant differences between Adaptec and QLogic that may account for the variances in their valuations. One is that Adaptec spread itself too thin the last couple of years (since corrected), while QLogic has remained focused. Moreover, Adaptec's primary product line (SCSI) is fairly mature, while QLogic's FC focus is just beginning to come into its own. It seems that most assessments rate FC as a virtual sure thing in the future of I/O connectivity. So, QLogic must be viewed as a leader in that emerging (?) technology. A company believed to be such a future leader can justify the higher P/E. Where trading is concerned, QLogic has far fewer shares available than Adaptec (8.9M vs approx. 110M). The laws of supply and demand have a much greater impact on QLogic's share price, allowing the big increases on no particular news. The same effect would be seen if QLogic failed to meet earnings expectations. But QLogic's earnings growth has been robust over the last year, and we all know about Adaptec's.

If Adaptec's earnings growth justifies its adherence to SCSI, where it is still the leader, indicating that SCSI indeed has a strong future (as the company believes,) then its stock price will recover, I think. Such a recovery would need to be preceeded by new products, which if not revolutionary are at least very attractive enhancements to its current line. Another doubling of SCSI to 160/M (product coming later this year) is an example as is the new 64-bit RAID card. Innovation is essential. The earnings release on 21 Jan could tell us whether or not Adaptec's current price represents the breakout point.

Hmmm. Do you suppose Adaptec could purchase QLogic?

Enough.

Starowl