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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cirruslvr who wrote (45067)	1/7/1999 12:32:00 AM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571832

AMD earnings discussion The day after last Q's announcement the stock tanked. I think there were two main factors to this: - the extra $25-30 mil in R&D this Q - Kumar's comment about 1% yield Last Q, AMD was expected to post a loss in the single digits and came out with their first positive quarter in quite some time. We expected the stock to go up because of this good news: - more processors sold than projected - better than expected earnings This Q, we still have potential good news: - more processors sold than projected - K6-2 notebook chip "officially" announced - possible spin-off of Vantis - possible announcement of IBM making chips - possible annoucement of Gateway joining - possible announcement of K6-3 on track for Feb. release - possible info about K7's release - possible announcement of K6-2 450 (and 433) We will also have potential bad news: - under $100 ASP - increased pricing pressure from Intel - other business slightly lower Knowing that the guys from Wall Street have been burned by AMD many times in the past, and the possibility of Kumar being bearish again, the stock could once more take a dive. IF both pieces of bad news come out, I think more than half of the "possible"s will have to be announced for us not to take a nose dive again. We also have to take into consideration that AMD's announcement will be after Intel's. That should allow AMD to counter whatever negative spin Intel tries to put on AMD. What do you guys think? (Serious responses please.)