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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert S. who wrote (8237)	1/7/1999 9:21:00 PM
From: Robert K.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 17367

I find that attempt at valuation interesting. One of your more interesting notes in fact. So let me get this straight. If xoma had 30% market penetration AND got approvals for >meningococcemia >abdominal >cystic fibrosis >liver indications >Hem. Trauma >Hu1124 THEN, it would only be worth under $7.00 Summary> >soooo, that means that if it works in all those indications that you would NOT buy it over $8.00 per share. Right. VBG. Besides, you are ignoring ALL those other minor indications like antibiotic synergy vs resistance (a small market) Hey, how about mycoprex? Lets see a oral, fungiCIDAL, that is low toxicity and Synergizes fluconazle(vs AIDS,Cancer etc). THAT cant be worth much either I guess. Neither is CANCER I guess. To name just a few. So In summary you are saying > DONT pay over $7.00 for the stock until it gets more approvals then in those indications you listed. Right. I think I get it> VBG. Actually, its your opinion, and you have a right to it. I just dont have to agree with it.. All IMO and a VBG.

To: Robert S. who wrote (8237)	1/7/1999 10:23:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

What does a 1000 mean in your valuation model? treatment cost? The treatment cost for BPI will be in the $4,000 to $10,000 per patient. This will be heavy duty type of cost like Epogen per year, Aids'drugs per year, Growth hormone per year. The only difference will be that the Bpi model will be per 3 to 5 days of treatment, couple of weeks at the most. This number comes out of the potential savings for ICU type of admission and the days/life/sequelae/back to job equation. Do not believe it? Check the treatment for Synagis, just in the market from Medimmune, it is a monoclonal antibody against RSV infection in premature newborns post discharge, advantages? decrease mortality, decrease hospitalizations 55%, and decrease length of stay, and decrease Pediatric ICU use. What is the company charging? About $1000 per vial, each baby needs one vial a month for 5 months, this is not counting office visits, neither home visits by a nurse (cheaper than office visits). This is $5,000 per treatment. This is the league Bpi will be, do not think Motrin at your local pharmacy. By the way, Did you notice the reference about the Critical Care Medicine journal and big review of failed trials I post before. It is from Dec 98, much more recent than your reference, and Xoma is not included yet. If your $1000 is the cost per treatment then your valuation is x5 to x10, this is $6.37 x 5 = $31.85 to $63.70 (very close to my predicted from $3.2 to $32 in 32 months). Maybe that is why it traded in the $30s when E5 was a hope, not a failure. Caveat all good if Bpi phase III trial is a success. This is for arts and entertaining only. All diclaimers apply. Past (disastrous) performance is not a prediction of future performance.

To: Robert S. who wrote (8237)	1/9/1999 2:57:00 AM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

Fair value $6, can you put some error bars on that number please:-) newbies to thread, here are a couple url's to get started. Message 5849488 recap.com Where did all the nice momentum go?

To: Robert S. who wrote (8237)	1/18/1999 7:32:00 AM
From: Robert K.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

I pretty much disagree with the valuation model from many respects, and several people here have pointed out things about this and that that have me thinking further. Mostly Cacaito and one other person. As Cacatio stated the model is flawed because of bpi will probably not sell $1,000/treatment. But for a moment lets assume that meningo is approved, and we only look at USA market and we assume 3,000 cases per year. 1. Because of the rapid course of this disease, is there any doubt that most all facilities will stock neuprex to facilitate rapid use? 2. Will doctors WAIT to use neuprex until confirmation in suspected meningococcemia in this rapid course disease? 3. Will that alter the 3,000 treatment figure and by how many? 4. Do doctors obtain spinal taps in suspected cases? How many? 5. Will doctors wait to get clearance from insurance carriers? 6. Knowing meningo is sepsis, will it be used off label a lot? 7. Knowing bpi may be safe, will it be used in suspected cases of sepsis even if unproven? 8. Given the above questions and speculation how would a meningococcemia approval affect actual usage of this drug? 9. Would you want it or demand it if suspected meningo or sepsis for a family member? >I would like to see Cacaito and that other person expand on this line of thought again. IMO this is relevant and timely. >all IMO,All disclaimers apply. Nothing may be fact.