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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hal Campbell who wrote (4387)	1/9/1999 2:34:00 AM
From: Ed Perry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17679

<<< '99 will be more like '95 on the Ampex charts >>> Probably so, at least in pattern, but the time frame may be very different. In 95 AXC's January effect did not get under way until mid Feb. 95 - the time of the 10Q announcement. That year the price ranged from approximately 1.00 to 5.00 with the Feb. 95 high of 2.31. This 1999 year, however, got off to a start with the January effect occurring in the last week of December, the earliest possible week. Then by the end of the first week of January 99, the price is up about 85%. Also, there are no immediate announcements supporting this move, only the supposition of an information leak. Thus, I am getting the sense of a "hurry up" time frame. Some possible explanations. 1. The stock may now be held by "very strong hands" who are determined to get a better price. Here, the quick sellers vacated on the way down from 2.00 and certainly were completely gone at tax loss selling time. In sum, there are no immediate sellers. 2 The mechanical selling rules which caused AXC to be divested by index funds below 2.50 are now working in reverse. Whatever screens are currently in vogue are selecting AXC for the long side. 3. The internal velocity of the overall market has picked up and the market influence is giving a positive boost to AXC. Currently the DJIA is about twice what it was in 95 and is certainly more volatile in its movements. 4. The long expected shift from the large caps to low priced and small cap is finally getting under way. If so, we will read about this in about six months. 5. In addition to the relatively high historic level, we are now living in an accelerated e-time. Changes which may have taken months and years are now being driven to occur in weeks and months. 6. The amount of liquidity available for investment worldwide is now focused on US Markets and is driving the slightest hint of a "good story" into a hyper time schedule (Eg. AMZN and BCST) The long term chart is extremely valuable if for no other reason then the more distant perspective aggregates the noise prevalent in the short term and therefore brings out the evidence more clearly. However, while I certainly do agree that the long term historical record can be instructive for the present, I also feel that it must be interpreted in light of today's changed conditions. Here, I am contemplating the thought that AXC 95 will happen for AXC by say Aug 99 and that, if Ampex has a "good story", then we may see 1996 in late 1999. Ed Perry