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To: ahhaha who wrote (3985)	1/8/1999 2:16:00 PM
From: JayPC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

You dabbled a little in Chaos theory in one of your earlier posts... choas in what some think should be predicable events... yet a pattern develops within the chaos... anyone else see this in the stock market? A shift from reason based logic to chaos based logic... the old rules no longer apply... and its not just the stock market that will feel the effects. Jay

To: ahhaha who wrote (3985)	1/8/1999 6:59:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

<OT>My advice? Survive. So you have been stocking food and water supplies eh? I suppose that is a better use of time than I can claim lately. I do wish you could spare some time to discuss this, though, because it is vital to all of us. I also am concerned about the market, and have been for quite a while. But frankly, my concern has lost me a lot of money. As in last September, when I felt the bottom was 6500 and I got into cash just before Greenspan did that surprise rate cut and left me to drown at the bottom. Got back in 1800 points higher, which is still a painful memory. The problem with this market is that it is nuts to be in it, and yet you can't afford to sit on the sidelines either. They've blown it again. Until they go back to money supply targeting and quit this absurd interest rate targeting which exacerbated all the trouble of the '70s, we will be in the world of wild swings. To be fair, the problem in the 70's was hyperinflation and a stagnant economy -- stagflation. So raising rates made sense as a weapon to combat inflation. At least it made sense to non-economists like myself. Today we have a risk of deflation, and they are trying to tackle it by lowering rates. Again, to a non-economist that seems like the right thing to do. OTOH, maybe they are playing with a chaotic system, as someone else pointed out, and it is difficult to find the sweet spot. This is no place to be for investors. Gotta agree with you on that one. This is a speculator's market, and internet are the newest form of legalized gambling. On-line low-commission trading has made this possible, complicated by the promise of a new technology that the typical investor does not understand, therefore can make all kinds of wild assumptions about. The FED has to get the stock market in control or there is going to be an upside explosion and crash. I am telling you that they are plenty concerned, and you should be too. Interesting that you think the evil government has to bring the free marketplace under control, but I suppose you would say that they threw it out of control to begin with. Nonetheless, I agree that something needs to be done, but what keeps me from reaching your conclusion is the historical data. I went back to 1928 and calculated the growth and variability of the Dow on a month-to-month basis, and found that today's variability, on average, is no different than it has been historically. The worst variability was in the years immediately preceding and during the Great Depression. There are some random spikes, as during the 1987 crash, and last September, but it looks fairly constant and I see no evidence that the recent swings are duplicating the pre-crash markets. Same thing with the growth, which swings in wide periods around a nice exponential. Not being an economist, and having lost bundles from economists and other assorted specialists, I have to go on my own dilettante analysis and conclude that, for me, Wall Street is not going under this quarter. So I stay in, watch the tape, and cross my fingers. But I do get concerned when those who have been doing this for a long time, such as yourself, have this level of concern. OTOH, I have found that the time to buy is when all of the analysts are running for the hills, and the time to sell is when they are all optimistic. So who knows? At least my porfolio has been happy for the last few months. Maybe S&P puts are the thing the get. So I am going back into hiding. Well, just in case you are right, do you have an extra bunk in your cave?

To: ahhaha who wrote (3985)	1/8/1999 10:28:00 PM
From: Hiram Walker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

ahhaha, just wanted to make a comment, since I agree with you 110%. Greenspan is a disgrace to bald headed men everywhere. He has made a shambles out of the money supply and the US market. When this bubble bursts, I will lay 100% of the blame at that idiots feet. I believe he is by far the worst Fed Chairman we have ever had,and the best politician ever put there. Hey where the hell os Volcker when you need him? I say instead of impeaching Clinton for sex,impeach Greenspan for screwing the US and the world financial markets. Hiram

To: ahhaha who wrote (3985)	1/8/1999 10:59:00 PM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

Didn't I warn you that you were going to have to deal wih ATHM facing the horror of becoming popular? We are now faced with the hoards of the fearless investor, a worse fate than you could ever imagine. You say you know the gut-wrenching challange of holding through a bull run. Our guts are not prepared for what is going to happen next. I dont think your shakeout of this current wave of investors is going to happen. Whatever wild plunges ATHM sees in the future wil bring us back into this general range, I think that the 80's are probably gone forever. My origional plan was for ATHM 200 by the end of the year. Obviously now we can see that ATHM may reach 200 by the end of Jan. It may as high as 500 during the year with wild 30-40% drops along the way. Maybe this will help you in dealing with becoming popular: The real test of our faith will be when ATHM starts to screw up through either too slow an install rate or not growing the network fast enough. There will be loud cries of anguish when overburdened networks crunch down towards the speeds of 56k that many today seem to think is plenty fast enough. Maybe thats when the average person will finally understand how inevitable broadband really is. Eric