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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DaiS who wrote (17560)	1/8/1999 5:23:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

DaiS, Some errors in your calculations: IMS is supposedly about 75% (not 60%) of actual weekly scipts. One quarter is 13(not 12 weeks). Average unit income is closer to $18(rather than $16.00) I would assume that the "average script" is for about 5 units. I believe most refills are for 6 units and currently many new scripts are really refills that ran out. True "new" scripts are typically for 6 if the patient was titrated in the doctor's office but if not then they probably are for about 2 doses(eg one for 500ucgms and one for 1000ucgms). I also find that we can't go by IMS numbers since Vivus counts income at time product gets shipped out the door. When I compared domestic income in Q2 to IMS numbers and did the same for Q3 they were not even close when looking at "average income per IMS script". The skewing can only be explained as above and by the fact that less MUSE is being moved through non IMS recorded channels such as ED clinics(many of which have closed down since Viagra). I have a hunch that despite lower international sales in Q4 and domestic IMS script numbers being lower in Q4 than Q3 Vivus may show a profitable quarter because: 1)Lower costs in Q4 than Q3(both SG&A and R&D). a)Less rent for HQ lease. b)Lower unit costs as PACO lease was eliminated. c)Lower payroll as more positions were eliminated towards the end of Q3. d)New CFO knows his sh#t in legal but creative book keeping. $16M of raw materials were written off last Q yet the material is still usable. I think that gives them a freebee in future "cost of goods". 2)I have a feeling that in Q3 Vivus held off on any shipments out the door towards the end of the quarter. I also think that towards the end of Q4 Leland and the CFO took a close look at the numbers and made sure to ship out any product necessary to make sure that Q4 shows at least break even if not a slight profit.