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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JP who wrote (20511)	1/9/1999 1:12:00 AM
From: Frank Sheridan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

to JP: Why I believe that CSCO can outperform the S&P 500. I submit the following points: 1. The Internet is still in its infancy, and CSCO is THE vendor of choice for routers/switches/hubs. I keep hearing that the number of people using the internet doubles every ninety days. Add to that the fact that the amount of data being accessed by each of those users is growing by leaps and bounds thanks to streaming media like audio and video clips. This all adds up to an exponential growth in the number of bits being pushed about, and CSCO is the plumber of choice for these data streams. This equals LOTS of further growth, IMHO. 2. CSCO is pushing BIG TIME into "voice over IP", AKA internet based telephony. This is a paradigm shift that is going to pay off big over the years. CSCO is promoting the concept of "webtone", this is going to eventually replace the dial tone. In other words, people are going to use the web for all communications, not just for reading web pages. Eventually TV shows won't be broadcast, they'll be posted and available at your convenience. This will take years to evolve, but remember that right now telecom sales are about $100 billion annually. Also remember that that is serving current demand, not the anticipated demand of over one billion people wanting high speed high quality internet access. 3. CSCO is also moving into the "final mile" AKA "the information driveway" AKA hardware for fast access from the home (I saw some announcements today about that). If they can execute on this they should realize good profit from it. What can I say. I love CSCO. They have been very, very good to me. I actually find myself wondering if they might someday surpass MSFT in market cap. Wouldn't that be something? I honestly think that it is more likely that it will happen than not. Finally, comparing CSCO to a Lexus is not really accurate. Lexus has lots of really good competition (Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Acura, etc, etc) whereas CSCO doesn't really seem to have any competition that measures up against them. Right now Lucent is supposed to be their main competition, but the article at fool.com shows that maybe LU isn't as tough of a competitor as some may have thought. My personal take on LU is that it is a old fashioned slow moving type of a company, and IMHO CSCO is going to run circles around them. If I was going to bail on any network stock it would be that one. CSCO? Nah, think I'm gonna hang on to mine for a while longer yet. Hope this input helps. Regards P.S. One last thought. If / when the bubble bursts on the really speculative internet stocks (YHOO, AMZN, EBAY, etc..) all of the internet related stocks will be hit for a little while. But I personally think that once people look around at who has really performed in terms of making money off of the internet then a lot of that cash will come over to CSCO, and they will not only rebound but continue on to new highs. This is entirely IMHO, pure blue sky speculation, so please take it as such.

To: JP who wrote (20511)	1/9/1999 1:29:00 AM
From: JRH	Respond to of 77397

JP: I very much agree with your analysis. Cisco is entering a huge marketplace that will revolutionize our lifestyles, but it is, as you say, way overvalued currently. In fact, I have held it for two years but sold 1/3 of my position to pay back student loans and perhaps even buy back at a lower price. With this in mind, I don't think that CSCO's management will vote to split the stock price. I agree, a valuation of 70 would appear as tops for me in a rational market! I sure do love this company though....

To: JP who wrote (20511)	1/9/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: Brian Malloy	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 77397

JP, IMHO, I think you know the answer to your own question. If you are a true value investor then you are pretty much precluded from buying CSCO. If you can not sleep at night because of volatility then CSCO would not be for you. However, if you are intrigued about CSCO and how it continues to grow then the thread is probably not the best way to do it. You must find a way to the answer yourself. Your post from Jan of 98 on the TXN thread shows you can get to the answer but you don't want “alot of volatile movements along the way.” In your post below a) replace TXN with CSCO b) replace digital signal processing with networking c) replace , but not without alot of volatile movements with by a wide margin Ray, My thoughts exactly. People are too worried about short-term movements in the stock price. Who cares if TXN is sitting at $40 or $60 next week or next month? If one believes in the current corporate strategy of leading the market in digital signal processing and that this market has significant growth potential then it would be wise to buy and hold. My strategy is to hold my significant amount of TXN shares which is the majority of my 401K account for the next 5 to 10 years. In my opinion it will outperform the market, but not without alot of volatile movements along the way. Good Luck, Message 3306909 To be able to invest in CSCO, MSFT, DELL and many other's and I'm not even talking Inet stocks at this point it is important to take a step back, and utilize a top down approach. You are trapped in a suboptimal state space due to self-constructed boundaries. By going beyond your boundary a whole New World of opportunity emerges. A world with more risk but with concomitant greater rewards for those who can assimilate and act upon the appropriate wave. Consider your statements about CSCO, yes they are valid for you – yet that did not preclude others, some of which who post on this thread from not just buying a CSCO or Strata COM in the early 90's but holding it throughout the decade. Because they could see farther and make the right choice they have been rewarded. Your question really should not be about CSCO's “facts and figures if possible ” this is micro. The macro question is given the next century what can help people and corporations to save money, improve their condition so forth and so on. Areas may include Health Care, Communications, E-Commerce, Broadband Signals, the Internet, increasing complexity and so forth and so on. Some would say that a case can be made that the Networking sector kind of sits astride a few of the major waves that will shape the way we live and work both now and into the future. The next step is to determine who are the players with the best chance to make it all the way? CSCO, NT, LU, COM – look among your list, maybe you buy just one, maybe you by a few. Then you hold, and unless something happens that keeps the trend from “heading roughly WEST” stay invested. To help you sit back and see afar you might check out books of the following ilk and their newer incarnations. If you want to get a grasp of what can be check out Megatrends, consider when it was written and then skim it with the knowledge of foresight. Then consider what purchasing the right stocks in the right “waves” would mean to you some 20 years later Megatrends by Naisbitt Powershift by Toffler Thinking Strategically by Dixit and Nalebuff The Work of Nations by Reich Against the Gods by Bernstein As a quick primer, a gestalt piece, read the long boom article below. I would suggest printing it out, grabbing a highlighter and underlining things and scribbling thoughts in the margins. Then stop and think about the world of the future, is there a role/need for networking? Can CSCO be a player? Wait a few days and read the article again. Along the way check out the links right below a few times. a) wired.com then at cs.bell-labs.com b) wired.com a) Consider it a representation of the Internet, communications, networking, etc. etc. etc. Understand that you can consider this as a life form(s), it grows it changes and at this point in time CSCO provides a critical component that comprises 80% of this system and b) it is dynamic and continues to grow in new ways and directions, some of which no one has even thought of yet. Yes, look at numbers – and I'm sure you are good at that, but also realize that the numeric/financial tools and procedures used today may not be able to price certain things, things that are just ignored or disregarded. Those able to take the leap to see farther may be able to cross the optimality gap and achieve a better solution for they have a more powerful algorithm that accounts for the qualitative as well as the quantitative. How much should you pay now to hopefully secure a place in the future. You see it is Back to the Future and The Future is now. The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980 - 2020 wired.com Regards and success with your journey and to other's on the thread

To: JP who wrote (20511)	1/9/1999 3:37:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

What am I missing here? JP, what you are missing is a very word that has a very specific meaning to the "Bulls" on this board. That word is "Gorilla" as defined by Moore in his book, "The Gorilla Game". That book is the reason Cisco is my #1 investment, and probably my longest-term hold. By the definitions use in that book, IMO, Cisco is just really starting into the major "tornado" of the buildout of the internet. If you read the book and understand it, you will know why the "Motley Fools" call Cisco a "rule maker" in the Internet, and everyone else a "rule follower". This is why Cisco will be able to maintain margins and not have their product "commoditized " like the chip companies you have been in. You can wait for a dip, but IMO, at the bottom of the dip, the price will probably be about where it is now. I expect a drop due to profit taking on Monday. If that happens, IMO, BUY!