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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MoonBrother who wrote (33778)	1/9/1999 12:55:00 AM
From: Peter J Hudson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

To All, I need one of the bulls that understand how the "thing" trades to look at a chart of todays action and explain. AMZN opened 25 points higher than it closed on Thurs. yet very little of todays volume was up. I read here that it is significant that it closed up from yesterdays close, yet it closed 24 points lower than todays open. 33 million shares traded, but there wasn't enough volatility for it to be day traders coming and going. If the bulk of the buyers are new investors wanting to jump on the band wagon, who are the sellers? Almost everyone who went long today is down 20+ points. Is it possible that the gap up was created by the market makers and most of the sell volume was institutions gradually unloading in a disciplined fashion? Just wondering Pete

To: MoonBrother who wrote (33778)	1/9/1999 1:10:00 AM
From: Malcolm Thomas	Respond to of 164684

Good observation MoonBrother and............ ...the bottom line is AMZN closed higher than yesterday regardless of the intra-day roller coaster ride.

To: MoonBrother who wrote (33778)	1/9/1999 2:05:00 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

Moonbrother -- The absence of a 'reason' for the drop and the way 33 million shares times $185 dollars changed hands suggests THE topping process is at hand. The only question is how many people will willingly step up and hand over their money. If there was a trigger, a reason, it would be more likely to be a pullback in the advance. This was a shearing of the sheep. If there are enough willing sheep there will be some very happy long term holders who have time to get out. If the sheep get spooked, this could be all over in a few days. No offense intended -- but I feel for those who arrive now at this 'party' only to have their life savings and anything they can borrow sucked from their banks accounts because somebody with a reassuring tone says -- come on in, the waters fine, when their are sharks in the water and the smell of blood is at hand. What comes next will not be pretty.

To: MoonBrother who wrote (33778)	1/9/1999 3:24:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

2) Is there ANY fundamental problem showing up on AMZN's biz in the last couple hours of today's session that caused $30 pts drop? I have my own list of questions for you, MoonBrother. First, congrats on your paper gains. I mean that sincerely. Now my questions: 1) Why do you mention fundamentals? Are you really believing that this stock is trading on fundamentals? 2) Why do you ask any questions whatsoever, since "inuts only go up, profits dont matter, etc". 3) Do you deny the existence of manic momentum buying in this sector, among virtually any stocks that have their PR dept whisper the word "internet"? 4) Do you know WHY Amazon went up even after announcing somewhat disappointing sales of $250M, when the "whisper numbers" were closer to $300 and up, to even $400M? 5) Do you really think that the momentum can carry on after Yahoo reports? 6) Do you regret not bailing at ~$195 today? Since "only" $35,000 appeared in your portfolio, only to disappear by the end of the day, maybe that doesn't matter very much to a wealthy individual such as yourself, so scratch this q #6. The conclusion, AMZN will come back early next week. In fact, AMZN will eclipse $200 in no time, and further marching toward $300 before the end of this month. I will post several analysts' latest comments about AMZN this weekend. Stay tuned... Very good. Repeat those sentences several times this weekend until your are thoroughly convinced. Right now the words sound lacking in conviction. You wouldn't be thinking of taking some money off the table yourself in the next 1-2 days while Yahoo reports, would you? Come on, you want to stick around while these stocks rack up record sales in the 1st Qtr of 1999, right? It'll be bigger than Christmas, right? Tell me I'm right.

To: MoonBrother who wrote (33778)	1/9/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Now Glenn has finally waken up. Sure it's painful to finally throw in the towel. But at least he has no more new pain to suffer. But you guys will still have his pain day in and day out, as long as you still try to short AMZN. MB, Please do not confuse my non short position with a change in opinion regarding the fundamentals of AMZN. I have posted and explained why this business model will not work. Every fundamental aspect of AMZN that I have predicted has come true. The business model failed and they are trying to change it but having no success. The only way that AMZN will ever be profitable is if they will be able to charge the same as brick and mortar stores for their product and add the shipping charges to that which has been true for catalague sales for years. The only cost reduction is the paper and printing of the catalogue. Online shopping has its advantages and disadvanteges. The advantage is one need not leave the house to shop. The company will have to charge the consumer more for this convenience. There is no such thing as a free lunch. Thie disadvantage will be the higher cost and the wait to receive the product. Many people do not like the wait and many people are price sensitive so retail e-commerce will only become a small portion of retail sales. The present boom which will continue for a few years, is the novelty. None of this has any correlation with the stock price. You may notice that there are no online e-commerce sites turning a profit, for the reason I mentioned above. The online shopping currently is not charging enough to cover fulfillment. There are exceptions at this point such as Office Depot. You will notice that their prices online are identical with their brick and mortar stores. One pays more in the end ordering online due to shipping but it surely is more convenient. The only firms that will be profitable online will be the firms that finely wise up to the fact that their convenience needs to be paid for via higher prices. I have been saying this for a year. In the end, there will be a shake out of firms online. The ones that survive will be the ones that learn to sell their products at a profit. AMZN's business model is still on tarket for finanicial ruin. It can be saved only by dilution again in the equity markets. It has become clear to me that the equity markets are falling all over themsleves to pay for AMZN's losses. I doubt I can be more clear on this issue. I know people will feel my belief is incorrect. However, it will take time to know for sure and I am willing to admit my fundamental error if wrong. I have that bet with William. I respect all opinions here. I do not claim to be smarter than the street and no longer wish to be financially run over by a moving train. I still have a boxed position that I may or may not flatten. I find this volatility addictive and I have a desire to gain back part of my losses. I can go long just by covering my short shares and vice versa. It is important to me to get back to my life where I am not obsessed with watching the tape. I have other interests in life and other responsibilities. I plan to remain boxed for now until I can tell how this will play out. That could be years:-) However, if I seen momentum and and believe it will continue, I will play that momentum. That is long or short. I am always open to momentum suggestions or those that believe differently than me in the fundamentals. I just wish to be on the side that makes some money. Momentum investing is not my area of strength so I am now focusing on other firms. Thank you for listening to my long winded post;-) Glenn