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To: marc chatman who wrote (34617)1/9/1999 11:53:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95453
 
There is an outfit called buy.com that sells books and videos much cheaper than Amzn.com. I wonder how many AMZN investors know this simple fact. I would never short a stock like AMZN, but expect it to drop as much as 90% when the bubble bursts and the reality of competition is recognized.



To: marc chatman who wrote (34617)1/9/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
I agree with you marc..... short net stocks at grave risk! or buy them at grave risk..... there's little difference at the moment. The market is totally a momentum market (except for the OSX yet)....The entire market is an internet stock IMO.....

( flames from non-osx bulls will not affect me. Red Adair gave me one of his fire fighting suits)

Joel



To: marc chatman who wrote (34617)1/9/1999 12:04:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
marc; RE: Internet Shorting/ I will pile on the trend - not anticipate it...

I will not try to ''beat the crowd to the party'' on the short side of the Internet Bubble; I will merely try to ''pile on'' once it starts.

I envision it starting off of a crisis similar to the total market crash we just had; if earnings are weak in the US - I see a mid-summer -Sept. major correction at the least. This could see the rug pulled out as fund managers will be pressured to withdraw all speculative funds - it will be a race to sell and lock in ''some degree'' of profits; and this race will be all straight downhill...

I could see a 2/3rds devaluation/correction in the Internet leaders like Yahoo, Amazon & AOL - I'd try to play the middle 1/3rd... The weak - imposter companies will get wiped out; these may present the ''home-run'' returns and will get decimated by the short sellers. In due time the Internet will have companies with profits and will trade justifiably at the top end of the PE spectrum - maybe like the overbought techs currently do - 40-80 times earnings - NOT revenue <VBG>.



To: marc chatman who wrote (34617)1/9/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: drsvelte  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
OT Internut shorts

I shorted AMZN, LCOS, XCIT and particularly DCLK last July and August with great success. My annual portfolio gain was well over 200% in August. I got to thinking I was pretty good.

When the nets exploded again in November, I thought to myself - been there, done that, I know this drill. Well, I got my clock cleaned in a New York minute. I didn't realize that 1) the stocks had become even more volatile than they were in the summer and 2) the sentiment was to move them up. I also violated my own rule of not taking home any internet shorts overnite. On one morning in mid-November I had about 4300 shares of ELNK, YHOO, LCOS, XCIT, and SEEK short when they all gapped-up by huge amounts. Instead of covering and eating the loss, I Martindaled my shorts. Can you say "Goodbye Lincoln Navigator!" Within a week, I pretty much lost all of my year-to-date gains. My confidence was so shaken, I did not trade for about three weeks (Plus, my wife wisely did not let me alone with a computer!)

I think the nets will again be good shorts, but I won't be near them until the sentiment clearly has shifted.