To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (34618 ) 1/9/1999 12:32:00 PM From: SliderOnTheBlack Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
<<when the bubble bursts and the reality of competition is recognized.>> I think the Internet is underestimating it's biggest competitor; traditional brick & mortar commerce and companies. They will get leaner & meaner to compete, they will become ''event'' centers - they won't just sit idlely by as the Net steals their business. I go to my local Barnes & Noble to flip through the magazines, browse through some books, drink a cup of Espresso in the coffe Lounge as the Jazz Trio plays and oggle the local college girls <VBG>; - Amazon - will never get more than 1/3rd of my ''Book'' business; they will never replace the brick & mortar experience; and they unfortunately are priced as though they will ! As important, is when the Street discovers that the peak of the ''fad'' aspect of the internet subsides. While the Internet will certainly change our world and how we do business; it will not replace the suburban shopping mall, or Gucci's, or Tiffany's on 5th Ave. Neither the Women or the Teenagers of the world will give up the national pastime of shopping,browsing, socializing and burning through good ole fashioned paper cash ! Sure Internet commerce will be big; I just think that the expectations are actually too great. The Internet will replace catalogue types of shopping. I would buy ''known entity'' types of products - a ''CD"" is a ''CD'' and a book is a book; but I don't see people giving up the touch & feel of products and shopping, the fresh smells of the Bakery, the social aspects of Window Shopping etc. Also; another aspect is that Computer terminals are not going to supplant the Television Set; the shopping channels are allready what the internet commerce companies are trying to become... I believe in the Internets future; it will be dominant and it will take its share of commerce, but I think its expectations are way, way too high for commerce. The Internet isn't creating Billons of ''new'' dollars of commerce out of thin air - this business is just transfered from Storefronts, catalogues,TV or Radio; they are not replacing storefronts, catalogues, TV & Radio. They will peak and the growth trend will slow. We are all ready seeing advertisers dropping net advertising because of lack of results and profitability. I've allways wondered why someone needs to pair up with AOL or Yahoo - why would WalMart need either one - just enter - WalMart.com and hit enter... who needs most of these Net Companies anyway... Streaming video --- if I want streaming video - I'll watch it on a 35'' Color Television from the comfort of my recliner, or laying on the over-stuffed couch with my remote in hand- not sitting at my uncomfortable desk chair squinting at my Computer Monitor that's 10'' from my nose... Valuations are the rest of the story; once we start having a few crash & burns in NetLand - the magic will be gone...