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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Judy who wrote (3813)1/10/1999 6:48:00 PM
From: Snowshoe  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10309
 
Judy,

WIND's share price is now hovering around the conversion price of the convertible subordinated notes issued in July 1997. Over a year ago Mark Brophy suggested on this thread that WIND would hit resistance at this level due to convertible bond arbitrage. Looks like we're coming to the point where we'll find out if he was right. From WIND's 10-K:

In July 1997, the Company issued $140 million of 5.0% Convertible
Subordinated Notes (the "Notes"), due 2002. The Notes are subordinated to all existing and future senior debt and are convertible into shares of the Company's Common Stock at a conversion price of $48.50 per share. The Notes are redeemable at the option of the Company, in whole or in part, at any time on or after August 2, 2000 at 102% of the principal amount initially, and thereafter at prices declining to 100% at maturity, in each case plus accrued interest. Each holder of these Notes has the right, subject to certain conditions and restrictions, to require the Company to offer to repurchase all outstanding Notes, in whole or in part, owned by such holder, at specified repurchase prices plus accrued interest upon the occurrence of certain events.


Regards,
-Greg



To: Judy who wrote (3813)1/10/1999 8:51:00 PM
From: Rich1  Respond to of 10309
 
Do you have a time frame for WIND. TIA



To: Judy who wrote (3813)1/10/1999 11:46:00 PM
From: carolyn walder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10309
 
Judy - thanks for the response. I am doing better, but not by much!

I have to say I was surprised by the lack of market response to the split announcement. Maybe waiting for earnings? As you say, this company is below the radar screen of the "average" "investor" (you know those buying the internuts/4 horseman etc.?...

Do you think that the next leg up will begin into earnings? I would have to think so unless there is major announcement from the company. Also my theory on why the split announcement now...if they have good news to report in Feb - Ron wouldn't want the market to have too many reasons to get carried away with the stock price... I hope I am right.

My other portfolio companies? I was lucky enought to invest in Intel, FNM, EMC and PFE in 1995 and have been holding, adding in the downdrafts. I had Motorola and several other smaller dogs that I got tired of waiting for the stories to materialize, so I cut bait. Held AOL and Cisco and cut too early (I thought the PE's were too rich - silly me). I also hold BOH (the old Bank of Hawaii - now Pacific Century. It is an interesting monopoly in the South Pacific Region - however the reliance on Japanese money in this area has hurt.)

I am an NAIC member and I have got several ideas from their monthly mag, Better Investing. EMC was profiled several years ago as was Pfizer. Interesting side note...I was at an NAIC regional conference about three or four years ago and I heard a presentation from someone at PFE. Among other things he said they were working on a rheumatoid arthritis cure and new antibiotics. He also said they noticed an unusual side effect from a drug that was under study. It appeared that it significantly enhanced male penile 'function' and they were having trouble getting the drug back from study participants. Well, we all know where that lead...

I am still looking for smaller "moat" companies with great growth prospects...do you have any candidates?

Take Care, Carolyn



To: Judy who wrote (3813)2/27/1999 10:27:00 AM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10309
 
Judy, Carolyn & Thread:

Just listened to the replay of the Wind River Conference Call @ 1-800-642-1687 ID # 866752 (thanks Peter). I recommend you block an hour out of the day to listen.

My impressions only
Positives:
Revenue and earnings #'s and positive street reaction with strong buy recommendations.
Continue to have high margin's approximately 85%. Are not discounting (cheapening) products.
Diverse customer base.
Continued 40% growth is attainable.
Expanding service business (lower margin but helps in sales and acceptance of product).
Continue to lead market and take market share from competitors.
I2O – for year low to mid single digit millions in total revenue amount. [Is integral to NIGO. Slower acceptance than originally anticipated. Expect to start to see more in June time frame (still 2 qtrs?). It is slowly building a head of steam]. Its best to reread Alan's recent posts on this.
In 70% of Japanese auto's navigation systems (must be in the acura I've seen advertised).
Many analyst's are still clueless on company. (Positive as more analyst's discover company it can only help). One didn't know they are in new headquarters.
Reviewed in process R&D write off with PWC and don't anticipate any SEC issues (but can't be certain).

Negatives:
MSFT will continue to issue FUD announcements. The threat of course is at some point MSFT may be a true competitor.
DSO's increased 22% to 71 days. Ron managed the analyst's well on this but this can be an issue (especially if competition heats up).

Company is following its business plan. This is still a good time to add to long term investment.

Please listen to the CC. I'm a poor note taker / assistant.

Ti