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To: Blazejay who wrote (4092)1/10/1999 10:35:00 PM
From: Boplicity  Respond to of 29970
 
The New Meaning of Discipline
By James J. Cramer
Price discipline used to mean saying "looks like I missed that one" when a stock is up six points. What has the old pros scratching their heads -- if not headed outright for retirement -- is that such discipline is now Wrong!

Don't misinterpret me. There is a sign on my quote machine, written by my wife a decade ago, a little beaten-up yellow Post-It, that says "Discipline is more important than conviction." I am a huge believer that discipline, per se, keeps you in the game when times are tough.

But the rules have changed for when times are good. What qualifies as having "missed" a move in this new world is not the same as it used to be. What passes for discipline in some of the highfliers in today's market is the discipline to stay long and not take the profit, a hard, hard discipline indeed, and one that requires MASSIVE conviction.

Let me give you an example. The other day, Jeff Berkowitz, my partner, calls me after a presentation made by @Home ( (Nasdaq:ATHM - news) ), the cable modem company. Ever since I interviewed management of @Home on Squawk Box I have paid close attention to these guys and I keep on waiting for the stock to go down to get in. It hardly ever does, as the company is in a national rollout of an exciting product.

Jeff was impressed; he liked the story. Gross margins, it seemed, are improving. The stock was up six at that moment. Everything that I had been taught about the market in my first 15 years of trading said "you missed that one, wait for the next pitch." But in this market the discipline is different; you have to ask yourself whether the stock could have an even bigger move from these levels. You can't pass on it just because it is up. I reached for stock and got long.

This difference between the market now and the market I cut my teeth on is a very important point that I will come back to over and over again in 1999. Here's why: That Wednesday take of @Home was 20 points ago. TWENTY POINTS!! In two days!!!!!! What kind of discipline forces you to miss a 20-point move? Whatever kind it is, it's not working. Moves like we have had in Net and Net-related stocks are so outsized that we have to ask ourselves, when a stock is up six, whether we indeed have missed it, or is the stock galloping to some level and you have to get on that horse in midcantor.

I have discussed this phenomenon dozens of times with my wife, Karen, the Trading Goddess, since the Net environment ramped. She even came to work for several days to see it in action. It didn't take her long to see that a new discipline had to be developed, one that wasn't as geared to hard and fast price limits. She is still kicking it around, but she thinks that if a story is good, it seems never to be discounted by this market. I bought @Home when Jeff called because no matter how much it was already up, if there is incremental good news, you can still buy it when you hear it, even if the stock is already running.

The tape, she says, controls what discipline stands for. And right now the hardest discipline is to fight the urge to take profits. Until the market turns sour again as it did last September, that will be my watchword.



To: Blazejay who wrote (4092)1/10/1999 10:35:00 PM
From: Moose  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29970
 
Jay,

The killer app? Certainly streaming audio/video is in first seat. Imagine the ultimate pay-per-view, on demand. Movies, news and weather when you want it. Kinda like the web right now, but not SOT (simple old text). Second seat, multi-media web sites (Games?). Yes, probably REALLY cool games.

-Moose



To: Blazejay who wrote (4092)1/10/1999 10:47:00 PM
From: JayPC  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29970
 
My Mom and Pop are new to the internet.. after recently seeing my speed with @HOME and quick links to CNN video, movie clips, etc.. they were very disappointed to learn it was not available in their area.

On another note, i have seen 5 TV commercials for SHAW@HOME and ROGERS@HOME this weekend alone (watching a lot of football). I live in a city of about 1 mil. people. Its nice to see people being bombarded with the @HOME name.

They offer $50 installation, $39.95/month, and your sixth month free. A co-worker who recently signed up on @HOME, already had digital cable (a fairly large monthly bill) and requested free instillation... he got it.

just looking at a few trees in the forest...

Jay



To: Blazejay who wrote (4092)1/11/1999 12:48:00 AM
From: Gambit  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29970
 
BlazeJay:

$19.95 for a 56k isp... maybe not?

This is ONLY if you have 1 phone line... which is a pain in the A*S!

Most people that are on the net have 2 lines and that 2nd line is going to COST you... My phone bill looks like this for my area.

ISP.......$20.00
2nd line..$10.00 (with out any calls ever made on it. JUST used for my ISP).
Total = $30.00
Athm = $35-40

You tell me what bonehead is going to say NO to 50-100 times more speed and on 24-7 for just $5-10 more?

Adam-