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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (34862)	1/12/1999 9:09:00 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

While we're waiting for the API stats, here are some articles worthy of consideration. Courtesy of our Iranian friends. thr 021 oil-non-opec 1999 no growth expected in non-opec production in 1999 london, jan. 12, irna - the center for global energy studies disputes the current forecast by the international energy agency (iea) showing an expected 720,000 barrels per day growth this year in non-opec production, suggesting there could even be another north sea decline. "given the low growth rates for non-opec production outside europe and latin america, it is not too difficult to construct a case in which there is no growth at all in non-opec output in 1999," it says in a new global oil report. the london-based research center suggests that it is conventional wisdom to say that non-opec supply is not particularly sensitive to oil prices, but says the experience of the past decade shows it does respond, often with a lag of a year or so. low oil prices in 1998 slowed the rate of non-opec production growth to only 200,000 bpd as opposed to around 1 million bpd expected by most forecasters. it was the second consecutive year that estimates have fallen well short of iea expectations. cges said that the detailed 'bottom-up' forecasts have proved to be a highly unreliable guide to actually what happens, especially in the north sea. its scenarios of north sea output showed that higher depletion rates and further slippage of planned projects could conceivably lead to another net decline in 1999. hc/ks end ::irna 12/01/99 13:46 thr 039 oil-price arab oil expert expects increase in oil price athens, jan.6, irna --- the director of the arab centre for oil studies in paris, nicola sarkees, said oil prices are expected to rise by 2-3 dollars per barrel in the next three months and stressed that opec's existence was necessary. in an interview with international arab daily 'al-sharq al-awsat' published wednesday, sarkees said increase in oil prices will come in the winter season when the world oil demand will rise to 76.3 million barrels per day by march which represents an increase of 2.7 mbpd. he predicted that the demand for opec oil will be more than the offer if opec countries really adhered to their quotas. ''hence oil price will rise by 2 to 3 dollars per barrel, and it might go higher if the winter is severe,'' sarkees said. the arab oil expert, however, warned that the problem in oil prices will resurface after march when oil demand will drop to about 73 mbpd. on the long term the oil market will depend on the economic recovery in asia and in the big industrial countries which would mean more demand for oil, he said. ''the adherence by opec countries to the collective decision is necessary, but this will not be achieved unless the organisation succeeds in balancing between the interests of its members and in chalking a serious future oil policy. hence the existence of opec is necessary,'' he added. nk/rr end ::irna 06/01/99 15:00 thr 031 persian gulf-oil-tash official: low oil prices detrimental to regional security tehran, jan. 11, irna -- persian gulf oil producers would supply 70 percent of the world petroleum needs by the year 2020, head of the international studies institute for energy, affiliated to the oil ministry, gholamhossein hassan-tash said here on monday. speaking at the center on the subject of 'energy security in the world', tash reasoned that the persian gulf oil reserves would last another 85 years, the longest amongst oil reserves worldwide. the proven oil reserves of north america would last 15 years, of north sea eight years, of south america 36 years, of africa 24 years, of the former soviet union 25 years, and finally that of the southeast asia would last another 15 years, the oil ministry official added. hassan-tash further stated that the durability of the persian gulf oil reserves necessitates new arrangements to govern oil exports from the persian gulf. hassan-tash specifically noted that the southeast asian states should follow the lead of the developed countries in controlling the demand for the crude at their markets. otherwise, he said, southeast asia should be ready to pay additionally for the environmental ramifications of the increased oil exports from the persian gulf region. turning to issues facing the oil producers, tash said that the persian gulf states cannot afford to independently invest in their oil industry, and thus have to seek foreign investments. the low oil prices has put the producers in a position to have to compete for foreign investments, further forcing them to grant major facilities to international oil companies for oil development projects, the oil ministry official added. hassan-tash also referred to the merger of international oil companies as another blow to the interests of the oil producers reasoning that the mergers further limit the producers alternatives. the official cautioned that the low oil prices is a detriment to the regional security. ''low oil prices, while enhancing the control by the western oil companies and the energy security for the west, would lead to instability in the persian gulf region,'' he said. in conclusion, the oil ministry official called for long term opec policies to instead of allocating production quotas, put limits on oil production capacity pursued by each member state. mr/rr end ::irna 11/01/99 16:59