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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (3732)	1/12/1999 11:12:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

thanks for the commentary from Cramer.. I'll admit I don't have a play book for trading the internets short yet, its too scary to see something run 40 -50 points against one's position. Yet their day will come, its a simple problem in my mind as follows: A. the consumer, despite low interest rates and high employment and lowered taxes does have gross limitations on spending. For argument sake only lets say its 1 trillion dollars per year, that's it no more money to spend. B. that 1 trillion can be applied to shopping malls, car lots, homes, kids college, travel, you name it.. each year some things get more consumer attention, other years less. Now we've got the internet getting the consumer's attention. C. the move to internet commerce is accelerating. I expect every company to have an internet site within a few years. It will be offered in varying degrees of connectedness just like yellow page advertising is when you get a business phone. D. the ramp up has surprized some, the early starters including Yahoo Lcos, AMZN, Ebay and the rest will see their competition from the traditional areas of commerce come on like gang busters E. you can bet that Sears, JCPenny, Macy's and every legacy acerage based retailer is fiercly budgeting to go on line. They are balancing their spending against potential profits gains and losses, but they will be launching armadas into our homes and offices. This is across the board. F. this will make the internet stocks see the light of day. Competition hurts, it dilutes your audience and captive players. There's nothing to say that Yahoo or AMZN will be smart enough to fend off this new onslaught, let alone manage to control the uniquness of their own interspace real estate. G. the consumer's dollar isn't going to grow at the rate of internet expansion, but it will become more precious to the many more competing for it. In the meantime let the party go on.. its something to tell your kids about. You saw the frenzy and even traded a few tulips for the fun of it.