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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (43103)	1/12/1999 8:39:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, thanks for the usual excellent comments. I also noted the fact that Intel pulls the seasonal flim-flam only when it is convenient. I give Kurlak full marks for withstanding Intel's hype and harassment campaign. I give him and F- for allowing Micron to snow him forever. <G> What is amazing me is that a couple of years back, when retail sales of pcs started to collapse, everyone pooh-poohed this trend because business sales were the big kahuna. That was true enough, though the retail sales did kill many of the players. Now, when retail unit sales are staging a low price, one quarter comeback, the same people don't even mention business sales. Odd sort of reasoning. Intel will crack eventually, but I think Dell will be the first to break ranks and tell the truth. We know that Compaq just doesn't have it in them to do anything but hype quarters even when they are disasters. Besides, I think Compaq will have a good 4Q. Unlike Dell, they don't need real final customers, just sucker distributors and resellers to fall for rebates and concessions. It looks like this will be a fun winter and spring. Best, MB

To: Earlie who wrote (43103)	1/13/1999 3:39:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

earlie... exchange2000.com >>Bogin(sp?): Why down in Q1? Bryant: "Yes, we have unfulfilled demand, but looking mainly at history."<< one year makes "history" in light of the 4 preceeding qs that show this isn't history? NOT! oh, and unfilled demand? if there is so much demand they can't fill it then why should eps be down? duhhhhhh...

To: Earlie who wrote (43103)	1/13/1999 3:39:00 AM
From: PaperChase	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Thanks Earlie for the insight on the PC channel. >>AMD has already grabbed a ton of market share from Intel and is not going to quietly steal away into the night. AMD's production capacity is growing. AMD's growth, plus a non-growth PC market as well as a big inventory hangover, bodes ill for Intel's Q1 revenues.<< I agree AMD makes a great competitive product on the low-end. But why must Intel's Q1 revenues suffer and not their Q4 revenues they just reported? According to the popular opinion on this thread, Intel and the boxmakers "stuffed" the channel in the 4th quarter. So why can't they stuff the 1st quarter also, or the second quarter? In fact, the opinion of MB and others has been that boxmakers like Compaq and GTW have been stuffing the channel for over 2 years! I believe if the channel was as stuffed for a long as some on this thread claim, there would be mainstream PC makers tipping towards bankruptcy. >>More price cutting will be required as January sales have been extremely slow in the aftermath of this extravaganza and inventories are still excessive.<< Why do I feel like I'm living in the twilight zone? Although I am not a retail analyst like yourself, I did visit retail outlets (CompUSA, Best Buy, Circuit City, Bernies, etc.) in New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Minnesota before and after Christmas. I left some stores because I couldn't get thru the ailes due to all the shoppers. I am definitely in the twilight zone as I strongly disagree with you and MB on this observation.