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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Freshmaker who wrote (34638)	1/13/1999 1:06:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 164684

I welcome anybody who owns this stock to rebut this. I am short Amazon, and am underwater for full disclosure, though that should not matter to what I write. THIS WILL END - the valuations are unsustainable - I see nobody, anywhere, even the owners of these stocks defending the valuations. But what will be the catalyst that finally sends Amazon into its death spiral? Some thoughts: 1) There may be no catalyst. The internet stocks may just fall by their own weight. It is one thing to manipulate a $300 million market cap, but quite another to manipulate a $30 billion market cap. There comes a point where the games don't work anymore. 2) I do not consider it a stretch at all to surmise that the powers that be at a Morgan Stanley might be VERY uncomfortable having their name attached to this stock. What would happen to Amazon if Meeker were fired tomorrow? If I were Morgan Stanley's head of research, I would have done it months ago to protect the firm's reputation (I worked for Morgan Stanley for five years and the company I worked for did not play games like this with its reputation). 3) Nasdaq and the SEC have got to be on edge too. Especially when the market caps get so high that the stability of the entire market may or may not come to rest on these valuations. How would a 24 hour trading halt or a 100% margin requirement sound? What would that do to Amazon's stock price? In my view, fundamentals dominate in the long run, and with these stocks the long run is about two weeks. Amazon has maximum $30 of value however you want to define it - I'd argue for more like $5 - supporting a $160 share price. The stock will converge on whatever its worth. Maybe tomorrow, maybe in March, maybe in July - I don't know. If it doesn't, history will have been rewritten and we can throw away any text ever written on fundamental investment analysis. JJC (a very happy and very regular customer of Amazon, but short the stock)