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To: JRI who wrote (89091)	1/13/1999 4:52:00 PM
From: Rich Young	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

You think people have forgotten that spanking they took in the span of about 45 days from August 31 to early October? Those people that foolishly sold then have been throwing money at this market desperately trying to make up for the loss they are so embarrassed to admit they took. Maybe they won't be fooled twice so easily, but after a couple of days of this, they're going to get that sick feeling in their stomach that they should have sold when they had the chance, but now they're trapped. This is market psychology I'm talking about. The aggregation of all the minds of all the people in it. If the economy doesn't get damaged out of all this, it will be those very earnings that people point to to lead us back up, but first there will be some fear. Rich

To: JRI who wrote (89091)	1/13/1999 5:09:00 PM
From: BGR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

John, The present rally has been one of the most irrational that I have ever seen. NASDAQ had a 150 point swing (6.5%) day today and nobody seems to care. This is pure liquidity talking. Brazil may or may not be material by itself, but the apparent ease with which it is ignored/discarded sure is in my eyes. Market psychology may have switched from depressive to manic and the Fed may ease again and/or organize a Mexico style bailout so that the jolly days continue. But I have made close to 500% from October to date in the trading portion of my account (which started as 10% of my portfolio) in addition to 100+% in the long term hold portion so I strongly feel that it is prudent to hedge. Still holding onto all the long term options that I have as well as tiny bits of Feb options. But no margin anymore and 50% cash. Maybe I am wrong. But the present euphoria invalidates all that I have learnt abut rational markets. -Apratim.