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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Scrapps who wrote (1671)1/14/1999 12:09:00 PM
From: D.J.Smyth  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1998
 
if you're asking is there a significant technological difference bw AWRE ADSL and ORCTF's, the answer I believe would certainly be no (ask savolainen or others this though). both are splitterless per the G.Lite standard. the issue is getting the telcos to adopt your particular brand of ADSL. AWRE's intial balance sheet doesn't compare well against ORCTF's (20% the revenue, and 200% the market value). they, however, depend heavily (almost entirely) on licensing revenue, and thus, are more dependent on telco agreements. ORCTF has revenue from different sources including manufacturing and licensing. The AWRE agreement with Compaq was, probably a upstaged marketing ploy (against Dell, I presume) by Compaq as you can include an AWRE ADSL modem in the box but if your local telco service provider is GTE who offers ADSL service (and ORCTF modems), it is likely, at this current stage, that the AWRE modem won't speak to the local provider and will act, instead, only as a regular modem works. Dell does it differently. They first ask who your service provider is, i.e., say GTE, then they supply the particular ADSL modem which speaks to your service provider. So, Dell will supply ORCTF modems per their GTE contract if GTE is your service provider, and likewise AWRE modems if Bell is the service provider. ORCTF believes potential for 99 could be as high as 6 million lines. Bell believes potential could be 7 million lines for their customers. ORCTF has multiple contracts with multiple telcos. It would appear on the face that ORCTF is a better buy.

So, AOL signing with Bell - will use AWRE's. AOL with GTE will use ORCTF's. The standaridaztion process isn't, as yet, final. It would be hard to believe that AWRE would have a foot up on anyone relative to any worldwide ITU standardization. AWRE does not produce any of their modems in-house, but rather subcontracts everything. ORCTF does some assembly in-house. There's obviously different financial renumerations relative to these two processes.

AWRE is possibly better at selling themselves to the the Street, their market price would say that as ORCTF's trading float is even less than AWRE's. AWRE's internet sight is even much more lively (appearing)than ORCTF's. AWRE must have really hotdogged Bell to get this. I wonder what they gave in return?

ORCTF still has 40% of the ADSL marketshare - although with the new AWRE agreement with Bell, their share may have shrunk. Nonetheless, ORCTF's telco agreements worldwide are much more diversified