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To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (27723)	1/15/1999 11:16:00 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 70976

Needham analyst A.A. LaFountain III, sees 14% semiconductor growth in 1999. He expresses his opinion in his report entitled "The Winter of Our Discombobulation." Obviously, anyone who uses the word "discombulation" for any purpose and anyone who has three III's after their name cannot be trusted! Regards, Jeffrey D III << Chip Analysts See Growth After Slow 1Q -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Story Filed: Thursday, January 14, 1999 03:11 PM EST Jan 14, 1999 (Tech Web - CMP via COMTEX) -- Expressing cautious optimism, analysts and industry executives at a Needham & Co. conference in New York this week said the world semiconductor market should experience growth this year after weathering a slow first quarter. In a report titled "The Winter of our Discombobulation," Needham semiconductor analyst A. A. LaFountain III said the semiconductor market will see revenue growth of 14 percent this year, but first quarter business could be slow because of the dramatic decline in capital spending by chip makers that began in early 1998. "Excess investment in 1995, 1996, and 1997 had set up the industry for a substantial spending reduction in order to bring the supply situation into alignment with its long-term trend," according to LaFountain. That will keep chip prices favorable to manufacturers over the next several years, he said. >>

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (27723)	1/15/1999 1:48:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Tito, Your staircase is getting higher risers and longer runs going into Feb (Q-1) earnings release. 207.95.154.130 Looks like folks are starting to take some profits out of the Internet flyers and put it where there is some tangible value and real assets, this could help raise the semi sector as cash looks for a home. Regards, BB

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (27723)	1/15/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Tito, Now the next Step: --- as per Specs, is to build the next Riser to about 65 (top of the Step) with the Ideal thickness of the Step (trading range) of about 11% or 65 to 57 5/8... Your $65 will then by one $1 exceed my orginal $64 projection off the $22 bottom. Then, we will be in your $63 going to $100 range. Remember, my standard deviation high based on past absolute highs since 1990 is $101.50. Just my opinions. Paul

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (27723)	1/15/1999 5:50:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Tito: Yeah, these stair guys have done a great job building an rocket ship and not a staircase. This latest run from early January in this sector looks like a liquidity pop in the most liquid stocks in this sector. NVLS, TER, AMAT are near or beyond their all time highs without booking one sequential quarter of earnings growth. KLAC is making a move as well. The small stocks in this sector are still close to all time lows. There has never been such a divergence in this sector that I can remember. Look back to the 1997 run. Small caps went up in lock step with the larger caps. Not this time around. So either the small caps catch up or the fat boys fall more on a percentage basis. I note with interest that AMD has reduced capital equipment spending plans from 1998 to 1999 from $1b to 900m. Dallas Semiconductor noted today that it depends to reduce capex from $75m to $50-$55m year over year and sees no capex invesments in Japan in a recent tour. We all know about INTC. There is no historical justification for the latest rise in these large cap semi-equipment stocks. They have entered the realm of the internuts. The risk/reward analysis points to the risk side without question. I am out of all these large cap semi equips as of today. What a nice boatload of money for a three month sector recovery without any huge improvement in fundamentals. Can these go higher? Sure. There are always greater fools out there especially in this market. Anybody buying these large cap semis recently for anything but a day trade or so? I doubt it.