Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: coug who wrote (12888)	1/15/1999 11:31:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Well, we are still banging around 9250 DOW If it doesn't move up at these m-tines the market seems to drop for some measure and try again. WE should know shortly.... I'm not sure that Brazil has been put to bed and Mexico is also groaning again..... Brazils high inflation rates were the reason for high interest rates 30%....Yikes!!!!...who knows maybe it will work. For now the markets seem appeased ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ New Economic Tack for Brazil By PETER MUELLO The Associated Press RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil (AP) -- The Brazilian currency devaluation that stunned world markets is an idea that has been growing for months. Its completion may enable financial and political leaders to change the course of Latin America's largest economy. President Fernando Henrique Cardoso hinted at a new tack in his Jan. 1 inauguration speech. ''I do not call myself lord of a single path. I am ready to debate and rectify the course,'' Cardoso said as he took office for a second four-year term. Within his government, a tug-of-war was already under way for control of the Real Plan, the 1994 economic program that tamed 2,700 percent inflation and propelled Cardoso to the presidency. One faction favored high interest rates to attract dollars, keeping the Brazilian currency, the real, strong, and inflation low. Its champions were Finance Minister Pedro Malan and Central Bank chief Gustavo Franco, who resigned Wednesday. On the other side were the ''developmentalists,'' who wanted to lower interest rates and loosen the straitjacket on the real, even if it meant reheating prices. As the economy spun toward recession, it won support from an unlikely alliance of labor unions and big business. Workers blamed high interest rates for a rise in official unemployment to a record 8 percent -- and a predicted 12 percent in 1999. Businessmen said high interest rates were strangling the economy -- car sales were down 28 percent last year from 1997 -- and clamored for Franco's head. Even the government was a victim of its own policy: Interest rates were the main reason the spending deficit shot up to about $65 billion, or nearly 8 percent of Brazil's gross national product. On Wednesday, Franco capitulated. ''I would never think of being an obstacle to the natural redirection of interest rates and foreign exchange policy, as the president desires,'' Franco said in his farewell speech. His replacement, former Central Bank monetary policy chief Francisco Lopes, said the goal of the effective 7.6 percent devaluation was to lower interest rates, now at nearly 30 percent. ''The change in exchange policy was in the works for some time,'' said Rodrigo Barros, a trader at Banco Cidade in Sao Paulo. The devaluation will make Brazilian exports cheaper and hopefully reduce the trade deficit, which was $6.3 billion last year. The government also is likely to drop Franco's ''slow-and-steady'' policy, which has sought to attract investors by touting Brazil's predictability. Since the Asian crisis, little is predictable. The question now is what will happen to inflation, the scourge of the Brazilian economy for decades. Prices rose less than 2 percent last year, according to most indexes, and the University of Sao Paulo recorded deflation in the nation's biggest city. With more money in the economy, inflation is sure to restart. But public opinion polls taken before last October's elections showed many Brazilians were more worried about jobs than inflation. AP-NY-01-15-99 0319EST