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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fortinwit who wrote (27737)	1/15/1999 8:14:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The trouble is, in order to validate the AMAT thread as an indicator, you must first figure out a way to quantify it. Otherwise it's just too slippery. Secondly, rather than just looking at what sentiment was at the peaks and valleys, you must also try to find out if there were times when the AMAT thread was bullish and the stock went up, and vice versa. I predict that you would find many such times. Certainly it's reasonable to use excessive bullishness on the thread as a warning to pay attention to the fundamentals and not get carried away with the euphoria. But I sure would like to see a more solid statistical grounding before using it in making investment decisions. As for the divergence between small cap and large cap members of the sector, it happened in the last recovery, too. Which way it gets resolved will be determined by what happens to bookings, IMO.