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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (27743)	1/16/1999 1:32:00 AM
From: Jeffrey D	Respond to of 70976

Jacob/all, in discussing AMAT valuation, we have the following off of the MSN Investor website. Could it be that AMAT is actually undervalued? In addition, on 09/03/98 Jim Jubak of MSN listed his top 50 stocks for the next five years. AMAT, is, of course, one of the 50. In fact, it has the best percentage change of any of his picks since that date when it closed at 24. I don't know.... is a 134% increase pretty good? Jeff << advisor fyi alerts FYI Alerts appear throughout Investor and highlight important information about stocks or funds. The alerts below concern just the information on this page. To see more, become a subscriber and visit Advisor FYI in Stock Research or Fund Research. Top alerts On 01/08/99: AMAT reached a new 52-week high. Research alerts Since 11/17/98: The price-earnings (P/E) ratio for AMAT has been less than its average next year's projected earnings growth rate. For small and mid-cap stocks in particular, this is generally considered as a sign that a company may be undervalued. Since 10/02/98: AMAT's price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 92.10 has been at least 25% below its industry's average.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (27743)	1/16/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, . I predict that, sometime during 1999, anyone who bought amat in the 50s is going to be very unhappy You have made many predictions and have sold half of your position before the BTB has breached .9, let alone parity! If you think AMAT is going lower, please elaborate instead of merely throwing out anything and seeing if it sticks. Back up your opinion with logic. You were one of the Bears who advised selling in the high 20's/lower 30's if I am not mistaken. Why should these types of predictions lend any credibility to your opinions? BK

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (27743)	1/17/1999 8:54:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, But not now, not last year, not for the next 12 months, and that's as far as anyone can reasonably predict. Selling AMAT at a P/S of 6, and buying it back when it hits a P/S of 2 (yes, it will be available at that price again, just as it has over and over in the past) is foolproof. On a fundamental analysis basis I agree with you. AMAT has never had this high a PE that I can recall. However, on a TA DW chart sense if we break the double top of $57 with $58 statistically the Probability for profitability is 80.3% with an average gain of 38.7% over 11.5 months. This would give AMAT a price of $79.059 from the $57 range. With the high values that Ralph Acampora (sp), Prudential Analyst, projecting a DOW top of 11,500, it being a the highest S & P year, 24% median return of the Presidential Cycle, the high values of the internet stock, I find it very difficult of fight the market trend (tape). However, I will concede that the Market and sectors, at 58%, on the bell shaped is moving to the high higher percentiles and will correct sometime. I agree with Tito, that AMAT will have a plateau probably after the earnings for a short time prior to moving up to $100 by August. I just find it difficulty to figure out what the market, sector and AMAT will do except when they are at the extremes: overbought (70+%) range or oversold (below the 30%) range. This is why I buy in during the oversold periods wait for the momentum to take over and sell when the sector is in the oversold area. AMAT is in that oversold range now but I believe that based on what Gottfried's Orders, shipment and BTS # are telling us that we will go higher. Then, again I could be wrong. The BTB # will be out this week along with other equipment #. Just my $.02. PS Even Big Bucks, I believe, is calling for AMAT to reach $60 if INTC, and some other tech stocks move up and $70 if AMAT has a good EPS report. Paul