I'm not usually so long winded... Still, this might be worth a moment of your time:
Just a few musings... First, I think impristine has a great point - smiles create revenue. So, who will create the most smiles?
Going forward, it has to be simple. I think the majority of users coming online in the future will be iMac-heads and set-top users; just plug it in and it works. What an idea? How do we get there w/AtHome vs PacBell?
AtHome: For computer users, we need computers (or mother boards) shipping w/ethernet adapters. Remember, year 1999+ users don't want to open the box. This is starting to happen. The standard configuration for a Dell XPS R 450 comes w/a 10/100 3Com NIC. Cool. For that matter, just make the PC "cable-ready". This is happening (http://www.home.com/corp/news/pr_981007_01.html). The less configuration I have to do the better - AtHome comes over and installs the modem and s/w - Cool, again.
PacBell: Unfortunately, ADSL is just about as simple, if not more simple - we see this today w/most computers shipping w/56k modems. You bet they will ship with ADSL modems in the near future. Just plugin and you're online.
Some other requirements for a technology to take off include: cost, brand name, coolness factor, quality and ease of integration. AtHome is winning with cost, has great brand names (AtHome, TCI, T), has high coolness factor, great quality, and provides a natural integration of computer and tv - something we now call convergence. A couple of these need explanation:
Coolness factor: Why do people buy books at Amazon and not Barnes on the web. The web is new, and people expect/want/look for new stuff, brand names, etc. AtHome is NEW and incorporates a high coolness factor simply because it is different than the 'old' paradigm of the slow telco modem route.
Natural Integration: I think we are on the very cusp of having the networked home. Network 'devices' are starting to pop up, home networking technologies are emerging (wireless, copper, power), the tv is going digital via HDTV and the computer is going video (tv tuner cards, RealNetwork, Broadcast.com, etc). What does all this mean? Here's the picture in my mind: The cable comes into the house into my Motorola cable modem. From there, I interface it to my ShareWave/Philips AMBI wireless network hub. My digital TV's set-top is now 'online' as well as any other 'network device' I'm walking around with. My tv is a computer, my computer is a tv - the line is blurred and we have arrived to the age of convergence. News, shows, movies, sports, biz - all on demand, anytime and anywhere I want it. I think the only way to get there is through very high, cost effective BW. AtHome is way ahead and provides a usage model which makes sense since it rides on top of a wire which already plugs into my tv. Ok, it just feels right. Cool, new, cheap. Oh yah, and integration with VoIP - almost forgot! Part of the picture in my head has me sitting on the couch talking to friends on my 'phone' which is nothing but the boob-tube. You know what's really cool: This is all available now. Even more, only one monthly bill for all that service!
If I wasn't trying to avoid a large tax bill, I'd move all my money out of INTC and DELL, and buy nothing but AtHome, Broadcom, Broadcast.com, RealNetworks, and I'd save some for ShareWave when they go public! Sit on that for 3 years get rich and then start considering what Teledesic brings to the party - online, in my car, at the beach, on the slopes, etc.
Even having said all that, I don't think AtHome will "crush" the bells/adsl market. It will eventually become healthy, but most data I've looked at estimates cable to be the early winner. I don't have the option of cable where I live, so I'll be forced to buy adsl. I'm a minority.
Enough musing...
-Moose |
