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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (27754)	1/16/1999 9:51:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Justa, I agree that the current prices for several of the leaders are well ahead of their fundamentals. But there does seem to be several significant drivers that could cause those fundamentals to improve very rapidly. 1. Technology buys related to Cu processing are underway. 2. Technology buys related to sub 0.25µ processing is continuing and will lead to production capacity buys fairly soon, IMO. 3. The much fabled DRAM capacity buying cycle has been widely rumoured to be underway with another shrink war about to begin amongst the US, Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan. If only the first 2 are correct, I'd agree that now's as good a time as any to sell AMAT. If all 3 or only number 3 is correct, then we could see another 3 years of sustained improvements in fundamentals with that stair step price action that has been talked about here. As Katherine D. has stated, the FarEast has already waged a suicidal DRAM capacity war and there's no sign they've learned anything from it. To me, that's great news as long as one owns the equipment companies not the DRAM makers. FWIW, Ian.