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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (27756)	1/16/1999 10:22:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian: I agree with everything you posted. I have more of a problem with the price of AMAT relative to those prospects in this market for now. I see fat and fickle money holding up AMAT and other similarily situated big caps with this last January run in a period of historical semiconductor strength and market exuberance. I know from experience that there is always another side to a parabolic rise in this sector and, if anyone is predisposed, they should consider taking protective measures. Have you seen any articles re capacity buying yet?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (27756)	1/16/1999 10:56:00 PM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 70976

Ian, from the Intel thread, hope Glenn doesn't mind my "borrowing" his article. This is the first news I've seen in a while re 300 mm, at least from Intel. However, I don't follow the equipment side as much as I follow the microprocessor product side. From: Glenn D. Rudolph Saturday, Jan 16 1999 7:08PM ET Reply # of 71521 Investment Highlights: * Intel (INTC-B-2-2-7, 133 3/4) is close to making a decision on whether or not to move ahead on a pilot 300mm wafer plant (the next wafer size equivalent to 12-inch). Fab D1-C in Oregon will be the development site for 300mm. We think that Intel's management will make a decision in the next 4-6 weeks on whether to proceed or delay the investment. A decision to “go” would obviously be positive for the equipment stocks psychologically and provide meaningful revenues to the industry in 2000. * Intel is clearly interested in moving ahead. The productivity advantages of 300mm wafer fabs is well defined on paper. However, the industry collectively pushed out 300mm development 18 months ago. Most equipment companies have put their 300mm programs on the back burner. The question that Intel now faces is whether or not hundred's of its material and equipment vendors are ready for the transition. * If Intel were to decide to move ahead orders for fab D1-C would be placed over the next several quarters for deliver in October and startup in 1Q'00. The required investment in a pilot line would be small perhaps in the $100-150 million range. Larger orders for 300mm would begin to ramp quickly starting in the 2 nd half of 2000. We think there is a better than 50% chance that Intel will decide to proceed. * Intel completed evaluating 300mm equipment tool-by-tool in December 1998. At the beginning of the 4Q'98 Intel's management expected “that approximately 80% of the required tools will be ready for selection and a January 2000 startup. As for the remaining 20% of the tools, there are no known showstoppers; they will just need to be managed carefully”. * It does not appear to be an easy decision. In the last month, IBM (IBM B-1-1-7, $180 5/8) quietly cut back its 300mm wafer development project in E. Fishkill NY (Bld 323) to the bear bones. IBM's decision will certainly weigh on Intel. Intel believes that it is necessary for the entire industry to embrace 300mm technology since the expense and technical risk are so high and need to be shared by the entire industry. Intel led the transition from 5-inch to 6-inch wafers in the mid-1980's and swore to never pioneer another wafer transition again because of the costs and aggravation. * The transition to 300mm wafers should benefit the entire equipment segment, as it requires an entire new tool set. However, we believe that PRI Automation (PRIA $33 3/8, C-3-1-9) would be the most leveraged stock to a positive decision by Intel. PRIA has automated all of Intel's 200mm fabs. Bulletin United States Semiconductor/Capital Equip 15 January 1999 Mark F. FitzGerald Vice President Tom R. Diffely Industry Analyst Semiconductor Capital Equipment The 300mm Transition: The Mind is Willing But Will the Body Cooperate? Reason for Report: Key Technology Review Merrill Lynch & Co. Global Securities Research & Economics Group Global Fundamental Equity Research Department RC#10201505 Industry Next Previous

To: Ian@SI who wrote (27756)	1/16/1999 11:55:00 PM
From: Henry D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Semi-equip no 3 in IBD sector ranking. does anybody know where we ranked in Jan 1997 and in Sept 1997???

To: Ian@SI who wrote (27756)	1/17/1999 2:05:00 PM
From: blake_paterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Ian re: <<But there does seem to be several significant drivers that could cause those fundamentals to improve very rapidly. 1. Technology buys related to Cu processing are underway. 2. Technology buys related to sub 0.25µ processing is continuing and will lead to production capacity buys fairly soon, IMO. 3. The much fabled DRAM capacity buying cycle has been widely rumoured to be underway with another shrink war about to begin amongst the US, Japan, S. Korea and Taiwan.>> There is one more technology buy which is likely to add to the testing market, at least: the adoption of RDRAM (indeed, its timeline seems to be the next 3 - 6 months). Any predictions what impact if any RDRAM will have on the (mainline) front end, backend and yield management equipment makers? BP