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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin K. Spurway who wrote (46346)	1/17/1999 1:17:00 AM
From: Cirruslvr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571826

Kevin - RE: "AMD never gained any respect by any analyst during '98." You don't think so? I do, but not a LOT. AMD began to show that they could produce chips in large quantities. Analysts don't care as much that they posted a profit last Q. What mattered most was how many processors AMD sold/made at a decent ASP. All of AMD's money will come from processors until Q2. Therefore, production is key to AMD's current growth. However, Q4 earnings weren't going to be the clincher. Q4 earnings were supposed to tell that production is fine and that the K6-2 400 and 450 will be available in mass quantity. Q1 earnings may, or at least could have been, the clincher. It could have been where AMD said K6-3 production is fine and that the K7 is scheduled for launch. Now, analysts will remember this Q and be reluctant again, except for the Needham company and Kurlack (he said something somewhat bullish in a article, but I don't remember which one.) The K7 could change things altoghether. Lets hope all is fine with it. RE: "Whenever analysts make predictions and miss (high or low), they get angry." I think Kumar upped his projections to set up an upgrade. He, like many other analysts, expected AMD to ship 5.5 mil processors, but not at an $88-89 ASP. If ASPs were $95 (I don't feel like calculating) I think AMD would have beat estimates. If AMD didn't have the production problems, I think ASPs would have been over $100. "As far as nothing to see until February--that doesn't mean the stock won't move between now and then, up or down." I should have rephrased that, I meant AMD news-wise. Greenspan may announce something good this week, Brazil looks better, Vantis may spin off. I think the market will bring AMD up, not AMD. February should be interesting.