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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (20892)	1/17/1999 8:19:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Mr. Fun, Bravo! I don't think that I can find a single point you made to take issue with. Thank you. I would add that going forward, both LU and CSCO will need to brace themselves for a new model to perfect. Whereas LU will need to address the framework of IP, since its heritage has always been primarily switch-based (and to a great extent, where ASND has an influence, ATM and Frame based, as well). And where CSCO is concerned, they will need to be able to come up to the deterministic attributes of the telco regimen, and their attendant QoS and administrative capabilities in a larger public sphere of users, as well, despite its apparent inefficiencies. While each strives to reach the better qualities of the other, while retaining their own strengths, a new convergence of these protocols will yield a new framework which is unlikely to resemble either of the existing ones. We're already seeing the beginnings of this at the VoIP, and the IntServ and DiffServ working group levels. So, much of this discussion concerning whose approach has been better historically, will be rendered moot, at some point. Probably sooner as opposed to later, as things go, nowadays. And at that point, the playing field will be more level, save, perhaps, for the customer relationship factors. Regards, Frank Coluccio

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (20892)	1/17/1999 11:15:00 PM
From: Jack Whitley	Respond to of 77397

<<John Chambers has enormous respect for both LU and ASND. Cisco has been preparing for this combo for a long time, but there is still alot of work to do. Don't just assume Cisco will trash LU. Lucent is not Bay Networks or Cabletron, and the battle is on Lucent's turf.>> Mr. Fun, As always, your perspective is a great help. Thanks again for taking the time to share the above. jww

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (20892)	1/18/1999 12:23:00 AM
From: mauser96	Respond to of 77397

Hey, don't blame me. I didn't write the article, I just posted it. Should we only post articles we agree with 100%? If so,not much information will get posted. I try to have an open mind. As my previous posts have indicated, I have no idea who will be the biggest winner. Probably there will be several, because I think the market is too big and too fast growing for any company to dominate the way MSFT does in it's field.That's why I own 2 of the front runners, and probably will buy a third one. In any case the biggest winner as a stock may not be the same as the biggest winner as a company. I do think that those who believe the LU -ASND combination will proceed without any problems haven't followed the history of similar ventures. Your last point about the battle being on Lucent's turf is a very good one, but that turf is shared by several other companies like NT. Actually as a stock NT may turn out best because it has the best chance of exceeding expectations, and doesn't have excessive institutional ownership (yet).

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (20892)	1/18/1999 1:22:00 AM
From: Bindusagar Reddy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Mr. Fun, you have been very accurate in depicting the strengths of both CSCO and LU. Don't you think market is expecting too much from CSCO especially in ref. to Telecom market. For crying loud CSCO does n't even belong to telecom carrier market since they derive only 10-15% of sales from this area. They are well regarded in enterprise data networking. That does not guarntee succees automatically in telecoms. Telecom carriers are looking for a a fool proof fault tolerant 7/24 network. IMHO CSCO has done well in enterprise, they have NOT demonstrated that in TELECOM market. Market and majority of oxymoron fund managers think that CSCO gets most of these revenues from TELECOm segment. Their main Telecom product is GSR12000 which will be cannibalized by competition in 1999. When that happens everyone will be on Chambers for not looking ahead. Thanks for your input. Regards, BR.

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (20892)	1/18/1999 2:04:00 AM
From: JRI	Respond to of 77397

Great job, Mr. Fun...Thanks for your continuing contribution <eom>

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (20892)	1/18/1999 2:45:00 AM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 77397

I keep telling my self I am going to stay out of the ridiculous partisan bickering on this thread Yes, we do have quite a bit of that, don't we, Fun. I look upon it as we, the Cisco Bulls, grazing peacefully upon the green provided for us by Chambers, are constantly being envied and harassed by the scavengers from Fore, Ascend, and other competitors of Cisco, who cannot stand our contented mooing.

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (20892)	1/21/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

Mr Fun, Again, too many inaccuracies in your account to make any of it worth reading. BTW: It's 170 West Tasman..not 350. ;) OG

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (20892)	1/21/1999 3:50:00 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Oh my how this pains me. But after reading on I have noticed that you indeed have strong influence on this thread. Therefore I suppose it's only fair to point out areas where I think some thoughts may have been overlooked. 1. The LU-ASND does not have 45% overlap of products. LU has less than $100 million in annual revenues from remote access, most of that in PortMaster3's sold to small ISPs, which rarely buy ASND equipment anymore. Yurie now has revenues of about $150 million which overlaps with the Sahara product from ASND which has revenues of about $25 million. The MX1000 ATM switch is a dog and has not shipped for revenue yet. I count about $125 million in "overlap" which is not 45% of any statistic I can find. Totally irrelevant. No mention of SS7/OSS given Stratus No mention of xDSL solutions. MX1000 is shipping and is available - check their web-site.... AND, what about Definity ATM? Also, Packetstar120 is not Yurie so you have add this in as well.. PacketStar vs IP Navigator I would say that you're right, that ASND does not overlap LU to the tune of 45%...but perhaps LU overlaps ASND by that much...or maybe close to that much. If any of you talked to a reasonable sampling of ASND employees, you'd realize that a very large percentage are extremely excited to join LU, already accustomed to doing so through their existing partnership, and united with their LU bretheren in their common hatred of Cisco. Don't expect LU to teeter around like a drunk while Cisco steals all their accounts and don't expect teams of disillusioned ASND engineers to show up at 350 Tasman road begging for employment. It is not going to happen. First, even Yahoo has the right address. I think this speaks volumes about numbers. As I said in a previous post of mine, I think citing specific numbers is a double-edged sword. It can make you look good..but it can make you look bad as well. You throw out numbers like you actually have data that no one else in the world has. I know, like you do, that most of your numbers are fabricated....but still I have to hand it to you....you are good. ;) Now, as for ASND employee's leaving. There will be some that leave and there will be some that stay. There is no doubt that working for LU will be different. Those that liked the way things were may leave...and yes, they may even go to the enemy!!! 3. What you can expect. LU and Cisco will increasingly compete head to head for carrier data accounts - ATM, remote access, high-end routers. Believe it or not, the LU/ASND combination sells 50% more data equipment to carriers than Cisco. Both have been gaining share rapidly and will likely continue to do so. This will be a high growth market and both companies will do well - as will NT, maybe NN. OK... 50% more? Where are you number to back this up. First you say that ASND and LU have no product overlap then you say they collectively sell 50% more data equipment. Well, given that Cisco's revenue's for carriers are equall (actually) more than ASND's total revenues then LU is selling many more carriers data equipment than end Lucent knows about. In number 4. You're numbers are wrong. We went over this one before. You say Cisco does $1.2B in carriers sales. NOT! You are right however Cisco does own the enterprise. Finally I agree that going forward LU/ASND and CSCO will compete more and more. It's gonna be great and both companies will do very VERY well. You almost can't lose investing in either one. Each company has an advantage and it's going to be interesting to see how the two execute. LU has great experience and contacts in the carrier market and understands the existing "old-world" circuit switched telephony networks. CSCO however has the experience and technology required to make multiservice on the "new-world" packet networks happen today. Their challenge will be building better contacts with traditional service providers and moving the market sooner rather than later. Make no mistake cisco is there today...albeit with a few baby steps to go. If Cisco moves this market today LU will be playing catch up. LU's job, slow the process and the decision making until they can catch up. So, who field are we playing on? OG