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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LastShadow who wrote (6596)	1/17/1999 7:48:00 PM
From: ViperChick Secret Agent 006.9	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 43080

WHOA... not sure I have enough no name brand scotch tape for my blow up poster ;-)

To: LastShadow who wrote (6596)	1/17/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: AlienTech	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 43080

>> home.earthlink.net << Well is it safe for the women and kids or should we lock em up first. edit, lisa and sue doesnt count.

To: LastShadow who wrote (6596)	1/18/1999 12:57:00 AM
From: Thomas Sterner	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 43080

S & P 500 (long and maybe boring post) This probably will be a convoluted answer to your question, Scott, but I looked at the chart and the MACD 13, 34, 89 from August, '97. On 8/6/97, the S&P 500 was at 960 and the MACD peaked and crossed below its moving average three days later. It moved sideways with a slight upward bias (except for the October down spike) until the end of January of '98. From August '97 until January '98, the MACD crossed back and forth across its trigger a couple of times. On 1/29/98 there was a strong uptrend until 4/24. The MACD fell below its trigger on 4/24 and the S & P had a slight downtrend until 6/30 then an uptrend until 7/27. The downtrend continued until the second bottom on 10/8 and has been rising ever since. Also, the MACD has stayed above its trigger since the beginning of October and this is the longest period it has stayed above his trigger since before August of 1997. To my aging eyes, I think the MACD chart looks most like August 1997. My humble interpretation is that we would move sideways with a very slight uptrend for maybe 5 months. On the other hand, the uptrend from October until now is much steeper than the uptrend up to August 1997. In looking at the price chart there looks, to me at least, to be really 2 H&S patterns forming; one with a shoulder in November and the peak in late December and another shorter term one witha left shoulder beginning in early December and a peak again in late December. For the latter, it looks to me like the right shoulder is forming and should rise a bit this week. This, incidentally coincides with MSFT earnings which may very well give a short rise. If I'm right about the short term H&S, then I would think the pattern and correction would be complete by roughly the second week in February. Incidentally, I looked at the 100 and 200 day moving averages. Both are now well below the S&P 500 and last week each was close to the furthest from the S&P since before 8/97. If anyone disagrees with my interpretation, jump in. That way we all can learn. Tom

To: LastShadow who wrote (6596)	1/18/1999 9:54:00 AM
From: Jay Lyons	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 43080

Scott- A beach hook-up sounds great. We'll be going to Holden Beach, NC, by the way, from June 12 through the 26. When I try to unload your zipped files, Adobe Acrobat gives me an error reading. Should I use another program to open? On your Mutual Fund timing models, have you ever looked at how they would have performed had you switched to Profund Ultra Bear (URPIX) rather than cash? I'd be especially interested in seeing how switching between OUPIX and URPIX would have performed. This site provides a weekly analysis that I find interesting. wheatfirst.com Jay