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Technology Stocks : Audio and Radio on the Internet- NAVR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Colin Thorpe who wrote (4533)	1/18/1999 7:57:00 PM
From: John T. Hardee	Respond to of 27722

I got nothing to do all day but watch every trade. I have no idea what my sell price is yet. wHAT EVER IT IS i WILL BE A HAPPY CAMPER.. I quit playing DDBC.

To: Colin Thorpe who wrote (4533)	1/18/1999 8:15:00 PM
From: Byron Xiao	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 27722

Colin. you said you set the sell price at 38, which you just pull out of thin air. The matter of the fact is that it might not get there. It might only get to 35 before it crashes like DBCC. Lane Hall-Witt and I posted similar valuation of NAVR after Netradio's IPO in the previous post. Please read them and see how we arrive on our valuation: Message 7337333 Message 7337689 Of course, the difference is Lane used BCST as the market cap model for Netradio and I use CDNW, NTKI. Given the IPO environment, BCST really timed it perfectly. From what I heard on Money Line this past weekend, there could be 25-50 internet IPO happened in the next 30 days due to the overwhelming success of MKTW. This will create a oversupply situation when Netradio goes public. Again, it depends on how you look at things. Here is my simple calculation if you are too lazy to read in depth of our analysis: Assume Netradio has a market cap between CDNW and NTKI, say 300M, assume they will issue 10M shares. After IPO, NAVR holds 50% of Netradio. That will be about 150M market cap. The intrinsic value of NAVR itself is around 80-100M. That will give NAVR a market cap of 230-250M. The current market cap for NAVR is 242M, which already suggest Netradio's market cap of 300M. I believe it's a fair price. I don't believe Netradio will be a 5B market cap internet firm. They are NOT monopoly, they have stiff competition, their technology isn't better than CDNW/NTKI/BCST. To achieve the $38 price, Netradio will have to be worth $850M, which seems unreasonable to me at this point. To put it bluntly, Netradio will have to go for $85-$100/share if 10M shares are offered. If there are 25-50 inet IPO in the next 30 days, I don't think this will happen.