SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: 16yearcycle who wrote (14583)1/19/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: Jean M. Gauthier  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74651
 
Hi Eugene,

the problem with the DOW vs Nasdaq is that techs are the ONLY game in town right now, regarding:

** earnings growrh
** sales growth

The DOW is flat-out tired, with some exceptions like GE, in the earnings growth game...

Also, the TECHS were in a BEAR market (short ones) twice in 2 years
once in October 1997 (remember that one), and just last fall ...

That is why this rally is sustainable, as aquisitions, sales growth and especially profit growth, which is hard to come by at this time, are present almost only in the Nasdaq , and to some extent, the S&P 500 (Top 100).

BTW, my readings of the sectors for 1999...

1- Financials, OK, although weak with overseas markets
2- Health Care, good in all cases, as R&D pumps out winners and is defensive anyway.
3- Consumers, so-so, as coca-cola, gillette etc weaken and/or growth slows down
4- resources -- yechhh
5- technology ---> Boom, then bust then Boom again, but definively positive for the year. (probably the only big winner, for reasons stated above)

All IMO, of course
Jean



To: 16yearcycle who wrote (14583)1/19/1999 3:35:00 PM
From: DownSouth  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74651
 
The tech sector is manic now as if all the rules have changed.

If what we call "the tech sector" did NOT include the e-commerce sector, such as YHOO, MSPG, AOL, etc., would your measure of the remaining components be on the "manic" side of the scale.

I ask this because it occurs to me that e-commerce is NOT high-tech at all, except that they use high-tech, just as retail and banking do. E-commerce is "retail".