To: Valueman who wrote (2586 ) 1/20/1999 10:18:00 AM From: Jeff Vayda Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29987
Valueman, it is too early to tell you to have a good weekend and drink a beer. It is also too early to jump ship. The Russians are notorious for bringing little extras to the table just when the US Government thought they would be signing something. They did it for years with SALT and ABM treaties. Unfortunately we also have the Ukrainians in the mix who seem to have been very well coached by the Russians! Quite discouraging I will grant you, but sadly not all that surprising. The launch business is big money for the Russians. The only leverage they have to increase their launch numbers is to squeeze the current customers so they will whine to the US Government to loosen up. Lockheed is scheduled to brief the government on just that. One good thing, once the green is given, there wont be anything to slow us down. We will have the Soyuz, Deltas and Arianes popping off so much the press will get tired of talking about it. Heck we might even have another one go boom just to keep things interesting. Remember Soyuz has 2 launch pads in Balk so given the right incentive (money) they can certainly beat one launch a month. Heck build them cheap little sats and lets have a Zenit launch on the 4th of July! Remember, the time to buy is when everyone else is looking the other way. Telecom seems to be getting more and more exposure of late. Airtouch and Vodaphone are both G* players. All the craze is 'national footprints' and 'global roaming' and not paying every local phone company a royalty when your customer uses their infrastructure. G* is just the ticket. Look how much the stock has recovered with absolutely NO good news since August. Hold on, once the birds start to fly, the ride will be as good a 'white knuckler' as they come - or maybe not :-) The business plan is sound. The execution has been hampered by dealing with people who do not have the same business heritage as we do. I dont know why BS and company thought they were working with a generation of capitalists, there is a lot of momentum in the Russian launch business. It has taken it 10 years to wind down from the loss of government support, cant expect it to spin back up over night. They are now doing the right thing and getting on capitalist rockets. Yes it has cost a year and yes some money has been lost. I take the positive view and hope that they are learning from I* and will flood the market with phones and ground stations - max out the system early. Get all the local service guys on line and making money. Then watch as the local telcos do the work and push the phones to the general population. Once that happens, desperate countries like India and China will be plopping down fixed terminals like nobody's business. They will see how easy it is to connect the masses and the reviews will take care of themselves. Personal time line: 2002. I will give the boys some time yet. Not forever, but some time. Loral has a big year ahead of it. Not all will go according to plan but at least they should be a little better at really having a back-up plan, Lord knows they have should have had enough practice by now! Jeff Vayda Whew, I feel better!