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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Aitch who wrote (44223)1/20/1999 8:17:00 AM
From: CRAIG HERMLE  Respond to of 97611
 
Lucent and Compaq Join With Agora Interactive to
Reengerize the $22 Billion Pay-Per-Use
Entertainment Market

LOUISVILLE, Ky.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 20, 1999--Lucent Technologies, Compaq Computer Corporation
[NYSE:CPQ - news], and Agora Interactive have joined together to produce the delivery system for the next wave of
high-speed internet network services bringing E-Commerce and interactive entertainment to the public venue. Agora Interactive
is planning on being the first to tackle head-on the coin-operated amusement industry traditionally devoted to non-PC based
platforms.

Agora Interactive, using technology from Lucent and Compaq, has produced the first full-service, full-feature PC-platform for
delivering arcade quality video games, video conferencing, Internet access, full motion video advertising, telemarketing, coupon
vending/tracking, and the on-line sale of merchandise. This system promises to bring full E-commerce to the public regardless
of location, faster and more reliably than home systems are capable of providing. While home PCs average $700 and operate
on a $20 internet connection, the new system will operate on a state-of-the-art Compaq PC and be linked at roughly 50 times
more power than the standard 28.8Kbit home connection.

Lucent Technologies plans to integrate its industry-leading LCV(TM) (''Lucent Collaborative Video'') platform to provide
unprecedented low bandwidth, low cost, high broadcast quality IP desktop platform providing up to 16 independent video
windows without the need for a prohibitively expensive multi-control unit. Combined with Compaq systems, the synergy of
these companies have produced the first true example of the next generation in public-access internet platforms.

For two years Compaq, Intel, and Microsoft have spearheaded development of PC-based strategies to consume the
pay-per-use amusement industry, a $22 billion business. Rising to the occasion, Lucent, Bell Labs, and Agora Interactive have
devoted significant resources to produce a machine to do this. Jim Newton, head of Compaq's Enterprise Project
Management, has been very clear about the fact Agora is leading the way above all others in this field. Using a proprietary mix
of Compaq technology, Lucent LCV(TM), and Agora's own technological alchemy, the new system promises to be the first in
a new age of public access to E-Commerce and on-line services.

An exclusive demonstration of this technology may be arranged this week. For more information, contact Howard Rubin or
Andrew J. Prell of Agora Interactive, Inc., at 502/585-5466 or 847/778-9341 or Robert Connaghan of Bell Labs at
732/949-1048. Private media demonstrations are planned for Tuesday through Friday, January 19th through 22nd, at Bell
Labs' Multimedia Communication Research Department in Holmdel, New Jersey.

Lucent Technologies, headquartered in Murray Hill, N.J., designs, builds and delivers a wide range of public and private
networks, communications systems and software, data networking systems, business telephone systems and microelectronic
components. Bell Labs is the research and development arm for the company. For more information on Lucent Technologies'
LCV(TM), visit the web site at multimedia.bell-labs.com.

Agora Interactive, located in Louisville, Kentucky, designs, builds, and maintains the delivery mechanism for E-Commerce and
Games to the public, including first-run PC games to the arcade venue. For more information on Agora Interactive, visit the
web site at agorainteractive.com.



To: Aitch who wrote (44223)1/20/1999 8:32:00 AM
From: rupert1  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 97611
 
H: Here are my morning ruminations on CPQ.

1. Being a rationalist it is hard for me to believe that the pop up in CPQ's share price yesterday was caused by the Faber CNBC story about an internet play.

In the first place, there was nothing new in the story - it has been far better researched and articulated here by rudedog and on the Yahoo thread by "she".

Secondly, there was nothing intrinsic to the story that said CPQ became a better buy - normally, news that a company is buying another would depress the buying company's share price, especially if the costs and benefits were as unclear and speculative as they appear to be in this story.

Thirdly, the volume of buying and the timing, towards the end of the day, suggested that it was not by "air-heads" following the latest internet rumour. It was by big institutions feeling very safe that a 10-25% price rise in CPQ was imminent.

Fourthly, both rudedog and "she" have reported that despite their best efforts, the security around CPQ's plans was exceptionally tight. Why would Faber be able to breach it?

2. I think it more rational that the pop-up was influenced by a leak about Microsoft's results. The relationship between MSFT and CPQ's products is classical.

3. If I am right, then we are where we where. CPQ is approaching earnings. If the earnings are .41, as I predicted, then we have about 5-12% to go in the share price before consolidation. If there is a blockbuster announcement (which might be blow-out earnings of .44 or above, and might also be an announcement about the shape of the "elephant") then we probably have 15-25% upside before consolidation.

CONCLUSION

I will not sell and will not buy until I get a feel for the earnings or the news. There is now a stronger chance that I will buy for an upward momentum play - but I am cautious.