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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (14901)	1/21/1999 1:31:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74651

I spoke to a microsoft employee and he said the Y2k risk is real. He said company is normally conservative. But for good reasons. He sees the worst case risk that there could be total capital spending freeze in 2H of 99 which will hurt MSFT as office sales won't help. He also said, the other concern is that Windows 2000 (NT5) may not generate significant revenues in next fiscal year. Despite all these short term issues. The stock is solid long term buy/hold. Anyone see that the internet bubble has started to burst. Look at YHOO AMAN, EBAY. All down 50% from peak. Is this the beginning of a major NASDAQ sell-off. If you get MSFT below 150, I think it is a good buy.

To: johnd who wrote (14901)	1/21/1999 2:22:00 PM
From: Jake0302	Respond to of 74651

Can't fault you for being in cash on a day like today JohnD. I think your pessimism is a little over done, but we could be headed for a dip in February, and it may be beginning. But I still think we have some more upside in the general market before we hit an absolute top. I am just starting with options trading this year. It IS nerve wracking and stressful, but it can be profitable. I doubled my money on my MSFT positions, sold them yesterday, put a third of it in MSFT Apr calls at a higher strike price, expecting a split announcement in the next month. I also put some of the money into DELL Feb calls, anticipating great earnings on Feb 17 in the wake of MSFT and INTC earnings. I also put part of the MSFT profits in AOL Feb Calls this morning, anticipating great earnings on 1/27, and probably a split. And I kept part of it in cash. If the NASDAQ goes in the tank hard, I am going to have to sell at some losses, but I think we are going to see down days today, maybe tomorrow, and then some more uptrend. Given the magnitude of the MSFT earnings blowout, I still think that the MSFT stock price has not yet fully accounted for the upward revision. I think we are going to see some DOW sideways movement. All that would be fine. And if the Net stocks lose about another 20% I doubt anyone will be crying. I still think that if the net stocks sell off for a few days people will start to say, hey, what are the real net stocks, because this Internet thing is just at the start of a very real big boom in communications revolution, and where are the real values? The answer will be favorites of SI veterans: MSFT, DELL, CSCO, LU, AOL, WCOM. Despite a downturn, indeed, especially in the case of a downturn, I think those stocks will hold their price pretty well. Take a look at DELL's performance in August98. Anyway, good luck to us all.