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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (44245)	1/21/1999 10:42:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Interesting comparison by Barton Biggs of the Internet mania vs. prior ones in gold and biotech. The aftermath in this one should be just as ugly as the prior ones. Surprised to see that the 1979 gold bubble was higher. The selling intensified as word spread through the markets that Barton Biggs, an influential strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, said in a speech early Thursday in Tokyo that recent history suggests the spectacular rise in Internet-related stocks may be near an end. He said the Internet rally has been brought on by "ordinary people" who have very little knowledge about investing and are buying Internet stocks purely on the basis of their personal experience with the Internet. Mr. Biggs compared the speculative bubble in the Internet sector to that seen in the biotech sector in the early 1990s and the gold group in the late 1970s. The biotech bubble lasted for 99 days, he said, with the group as a whole rising 140%, while the gold bubble in 1979 lasted for 111 days as prices rose 280%. Internet stocks now have risen 260% over a 101-day period

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (44245)	1/22/1999 10:34:00 AM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 132070

Definitely. Starting in November, the AD remained flat while the NYSE went to new highs, a sign of a sick rally. On the subject of TA, the rally since October has been led by the same group of stocks as the rally leading to the summer correction. To me, the signature of a bear market is not the percentage of the decline, but a change in leadership in the ensuing rally. For example, in 1996, the decline was a mere 10% (20% in the NASDAQ), but there was a severe shift in leadership afterwards. Just my 2 &#162 . . . Tom