To: Bob Howarth who wrote (12221 ) 1/22/1999 10:05:00 AM From: Steve Fancy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 22640
Japan Sakakibara warns of financial meltdown Reuters, Friday, January 22, 1999 at 05:34 By Edwina Gibbs TOKYO, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Japan's top financial diplomat Eisuke Sakakibara warned on Friday that without reform of the international finance system, the world risked a major financial meltdown. "I hope that in the next 10 to 20 years we could avoid both depressions and war, but there is a definite risk of world financial collapse. For that reason, reform of the international financial architecture is so important," he told a luncheon gathering with foreign journalists. Sakakibara said he was not preaching against market forces or market mechanisms but was against a U.S.-led "market fundamentalism," where he said market forces tended to be left unchecked without question. In particular he attacked the International Monetary Fund's policy prescriptions for countries in financial turmoil, saying that, for example, the imposition of high interest rates in Indonesia had not been a good idea. Crisis after crisis could result in a major meltdown of the world financial system, he said, but added that he thought such a meltdown could be avoided. To that end, a mechanism to stabilise financial markets was needed, he said. He also challenged economists that say currency depreciation would eventually restore market equilibrium in crisis-hit nations and said that in many cases, such a move had led a freefall in the exchange rate. "I am very interested to observe what will happen to Brazil in the coming weeks," he added. Brazil, plunged into crisis by a huge loss in investor confidence over worries about its fiscal reform plans, announced on Monday that it would it float its currency. As of Thursday, the real had dived 30 percent since last week. Sakakibara, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, also said floating an exchange rate in a crisis could lead to a collapse of foreign exchange transactions and the same applied to letting interest rates rise to defend exchange rates. His speech followed one by Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa in December where Miyazawa called for "managed flexibility" between the yen, the euro and the U.S. dollar, which has been interpreted by some as suggesting currency target zones. But Sakakibara said Japan did not necessarily support the idea. "We will certainly discuss this...but at this moment our position is not that of support for target zones," he said. Sakakibara said authorities needed to approach markets with the aim of enhancing competition and not the promotion of unlimited freedom. "Global capitalism needs to be restrained in its cross-border transactions, be it through disclosure, supervisory and prudential regulations, or outright controls," he said. He called for "systemic diversity" in the world's financial system that respected social and political differences. Sakakibara also predicted that what he called the regime of laissez faire or market fundamentalism dominated by the United States in the 1980s and 1990s would not continue into the 21st century. U.S. dominance, political and economic, was declining, he said, citing the unification of Europe and instability in global capitalism. But he acknowledged that a waning of U.S. influence could reduce the degree of coordination between nations that currently exists. tokyo.newsroom@reuters.com)) Copyright 1999, Reuters News Service