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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (14038)	1/22/1999 12:09:00 PM
From: Alan Hume	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Uncle, I'm not forgetting MU, but my understanding is that they don't ramp significantly until Q1-2000 I don't mean to play the bear here. but I want you to think realistically Alan

To: unclewest who wrote (14038)	1/22/1999 12:15:00 PM
From: Bernard Super	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 93625

Thanks, unclewest, for giving your cut at RMBS royalties as a function of chip production revenues. I'd appreciate someone checking the following arithmetic:- Based on your figures: 40% of 2% of $15 = 12 cents to RMBS bottom line per chip sold. Or for every $1 billion revenue to the chip mfrs: $1 billion/($15x.12)= ~$8 million to RMBS' bottom line = $0.32/share. Taking into account (1) the fact that, acc. to RMBS annual report, RMBS gets paid in the quarter following shipment of any chips, and (2) RMBS' announced increased R&D spending over the next three quarters to support the intro of RDRAM, and (3) the Samsung estimate of a total Yr2000 RDRAM market of $13.5B, and Yr1999 mkt $2.6B (I assume Samsung meant this as total, of which their share would be 30%), I come up with the following: 4/14/99 - no effect (i.e. $0.08/sh - higher R&D compensated by limited already made deliveries to the boxmakers. 7/14/99 - no effect (higher R&D uses up additional royalties from prior quarter chip shipments). 10/14/99 - $0.24/share (an extra $0.5B shipped to hungry boxmakers in prior quarter. I'm assuming there are still severe chip mfr capacity limitations at this point) 1/14/00 - $0.40/share ($1B RDRAMS plus the current .08/Q running rate) For all of calendar 2000, $10x$0.32 = $3.20/share (I reduced $13.6B to $10B to account for the the one quarter time lag). Once again, I'd appreciate someone checking these figures, as I'm prone to arithmetic blunders. Regards - Bernard