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To: Wizard who wrote (388)	1/22/1999 3:31:00 PM
From: Tokyo VD	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 600

Wizard, The risk that you highlighted happened yesterday. Management lowered expectations (especially in the first half of '99) down to manageable levels. You make an interesting point of saying that you'd sell into strength, but given your logic you don't own the stock. So, telling us to short the stock until "estimates start trending the opposite direction" is the kiss of death for a short seller. I find it also peculiar how you picked the biggest cut (bigger than management's guidance) in the numbers to highlight your perspective (you must love those geniuses over at Robbie Stephens with their terrific research prowess). With others lowering expectations in-line with management's guidance to $1.10 this year (back-end loaded) and revenues at $175mm, then what's the risk at $25 a share? The risk is you don't believe management can pull off their gameplan. I don't want to bet against the industry leader when the smaller, less equipped Open Text has a $600 million market cap with half the revenues. This stock is a no brainer. When the 'mo guys finish getting out, the stock will drift higher (or sooner if management gets out to promote the stock). If management doesn't screw up the first quarter results, then the stock will trade off the '00 numbers. THAT IS $225mm in revenues and $1.50 EPS. This stock will be in the mid $30s in six months. Tokyo

To: Wizard who wrote (388)	1/22/1999 7:02:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 600

These guys have been pretty consistant in setting targets and overachieving them and I expect that they have factored any potential uncertainty into the lower forecasts. I don't think we are going to see any upward revision estimates before they report. I would prefer to see a blowout quarterly achievment in Q1. What basis do you believe that they mismanaged the pipeline? I hope you aren't talking about 1M$. In this instance I am willing to believe that slippage was incidental and not an epidemic. Typically if they missed their numbers big time and regularily you could make a case for sales management problems, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Market conditions aside, I expect that we've seen the end of the volatility. The fear has been baked into the price for the last week, and the news isn't that bad. The risk would also appear to be contained and reasonable given the reward potential, and particularily given the track record of management. Based on positive momentumn this next week I plan to be a buyer, not a seller.