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Technology Stocks : Corel Corp. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wizzer who wrote (6078)	1/22/1999 7:37:00 PM
From: VerificateASAP	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9798

Picked up Report From Dominion Securities this evening. If the earnings are going to pick up dramatically in Q2 to 18cents a share with sales of 81.5 million dollars based on a report written by David Kramer of RBC DOMINION SECURITIES I will tell you now I am buying my position back on Monday. Full force. My whole entire huge position. I sold my position above 7 dollars on buy the rumor sell on news. Im looking ahead again into the future. This is my analysis. I think in Q3 and Q4 going into Christmas of 1999 the sales of the company are going to be stronger than last year by a long shot. Sales In Q2 are going to go through the roof. This is a new product release after two years for both their major product lines. This sell off is overdone already and the stock can be picked here for a bargain. Growth will come from their products because it is a must upgrade quoted by PC WEEK. There are a lot of people I have talked to that will replace their old editions of software for the new. One friend of mine still has the old WordPerfect 5 and when he heard about pc week giving it a must upgrade he decided he will take the plunge and get it. Sales should overtake all the proceeding quarters by a great margin in Q2, Q3 and Q4 in 1999. Kramer makes one big mistake. He reports Q3 at 67million and Q4 at 62 million in sales for 1999. That is a big mistake because sales are going to increase going into Christmas from last year. These are new upgraded editions of software coming out this year. They call him an analyst. He should resharpen his pencil again. He shows sales decreasing by 5 million in Q3(67.8M) and Q4(62.4M) in 1999 as compared to the year before Q3(71.1M) and Q4(67.2M) in 1998. Sales do not decrease in a year that two new product release launches come out. They explode. They have already reported a profit of 10 cents US last quarter. These figures are compiled using a very conservative scenerio. Growth factors are not factored in. This is for the year 1999. I expect sales for the 1st quarter to be around 60 million showing a profit of about 7 cents US. Above his expectations. Second quarter as reported by Kramer will show sales of 81.453 million and a profit of 18 cents US a share. As expected. Third quarter should show a 10% improvement in sales from 1998 to 78 million in sales showing a profit of 16 cents US a share. Above his expectations. Fourth quarter should show a 10% improvement in sales from 1998 to 74 million in sales showing a profit of 14 cents US a share. Above his expectations. Total projected for earnings on a conservative basis is 55 cents US for the year with sales of 293.5 million. Cost controls are in effect and management is very tight with expenses. Conference call reiterated that too analysts. They should sharpen their pencils and redefine their models properly because things have changed dramatically at Corel and they wouldn't have said it if they didnt mean it. Do you really think they said it for no reason. Why should they have mud thrown in their faces in the first quarter coming due. Analysts might have mud thrown back in their faces if they dont pay attention and spend more time getting their numbers right. They are going to report a profit in the first quarter. Kramer says they will have a loss of 1 cents a share on 60 million dollars in sales. Go figure. Management already told the analysts they are in control of expenses all around and the analysts should change the earnings model to new modeled calculations. If Corel made 10 cents Us in the last quarter on sales of 67 million how then does Kramer say they will report a loss of 1 cents a share on 60 million in sales. Give me a break. Is Kramer trying to knock the company down because Dominion Securities wants to pick up stock for their cleints. Very bad analysis. More to come. Any newspaper editor has permission to use quotes from my analysis. Corel is cheap. 55 cents in earnings using Kramers very conservative price multiple of 18x puts the stock price at US$0.50*18x= US$9.90, say C$15.00. Cash position by year end is going to rise by year end dramatically. Secondly doesnt Bay Street and Wall Street look forward realistically. This stock is underpriced based on earnings projection. They have no more costs adhered to new risky product developments. Concentration on their main product lines will reduce R and D expenditures. They already have a huge following of product users for Corel Draw and WordPerfect.