To: Prognosticator who wrote (517 ) 1/22/1999 8:00:00 PM From: VINCENT MALGAPO Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1606
From Yahoo: My response to Prognosticator from SI Thread by: fomm50 (50/M/New Jersey) 143 of 143 Although Prognosticator has some interesting insights, I think he has missed the wider picture. Here are reasons why I am more optimistic than he appears to be about INSGY's future prospects: 1. Sun does not enjoy the monopoly power that Microsoft does on current PC desktops, and therefore cannot afford to crush a rival, particularly if that rival's potentially superior product can help their key products (JAVA/JINI) gain global dominance. Sun is obviously counting on JAVA/JINI to dominate the networking systems of the future, but they are facing stiff competition from Microsoft (with Universal Plus and Play and Millenium), IBM (with T spaces), Lucent (with Inferno), HP (with JetSend), and Intel (with Home Network API). See: news.com 2. For the immediate future, a tug of war is going to be waged by Microsoft (with Windows CE) against pure JAVA-embedded systems for dominance of popular consumer electronics like PDAs. INSGY's strategy of adapting their JENE to work with WinCE and other platforms (other than SPARC) provides a considerable degree of strategic flexibility, since no matter who wins the short-term battle, JENE will emerge a winner too. 3. Avoiding direct competition with SUN for JVMs for SPARC devices makes sense for two reasons: (a) Sun's own Java Embedded Server is probably optimized for that environment anyway. (b) Unlike JAVA, the Java Embedded Server is not free (it is sold for $3,500 per developer seat plus royalties on network installations and OEM devices). Thus, if the JENE is in fact superior to the Java Embedded Server, Sun is unlikely to thank INSGY for taking away sales in a direct competition on Sun's own SPARC systems. Why irritate a giant if that can be avoided? Anyway, these are just my thoughts at this point. -- FOMM50