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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James McMahon Jr. who wrote (4299)	1/23/1999 8:38:00 AM
From: Starowl	Respond to of 5944

I'll hazard a guess, Jim. I don't think the recent downward drift has been that substantial or is unique to Adaptec or is because of prior quarterly disappointments. And Adaptec's price is up nearly 200 percent since early October and approximately 40 percent over the last month. Until recently, the NASDAQ has soared on good economic news and positive earnings reports. I think we've just lost momentum, that the markets anticipated improved earnings, and after all the excitement just needed a breather and a reason to take some profits. Brazil's situation helped provide the reason. Adaptec's pre-announcement destroyed all the estimates, so there isn't much surprise waiting behind a tree. It already announced that earnings will be over $0.20 per share. The questions are, "by how much?" and "what will we learn at the conference call?" Unless the "how much" is "a whole lot", like $0.25 or more, the report on Monday by itself will only confirm what everybody should already know--Adaptec has turned around. The most important news on Monday will most likely come from the presentations and responses to analysts' questions. A combination of another surprise number, strong and substantiated statements on the current state of the company, and realistic positive statements about the near-term prospects (this quarter) could give the share price another nice boost. I think the recent downward drift has shaken the tree a bit, causing some dropout of the timid and satisfied. I picked up a couple of their apples yesterday, when volume was relatively low. Starowl