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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Philosopher who wrote (4303)	1/23/1999 9:49:00 PM
From: Jim Switz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5944

One man's opinion from Yahoo: They borrow postings from SI, we borrow (much less) stuff from them. This is not my post, but I thought it quite worth considering re: Monday and Tuesday forecasts. FWIW I'm sticking to my 22-cent prediction, and quietly hoping I'm 'way low. ADPT by: swathis 15003 of 15003 Here is the answer to your question: Traders are not likely to hold positions during the weekend and the market was very volatile on Friday. That the volume was low (1,039,900) compared to the previous four days (2 million and above on all these days) is an indication that the price was holding up against a falling market and this is a good sign. Technical indications are that market needs an excuse to go up (since it is in an oversold position and will use any excuse to bounce back though for a short term) and I think the Senate's move to wind up Clinton scandal in a week will be used as the proxy to drive the market up on Monday. It would not be a surprise if the market went down for the first two hours, but it would start going up in the afternoon - China has not devalued its currency and Argentina also will not devalue its currency, and they will be good news. (The market was expecting that these two countries would devalue their respective currencies during the weekend - at least that was the rumor). (If they had devalued their currencies by the market opens, just sell all your equities and run for a shelter) With regard to ADPT, it may not move much on Monday since the market makers on this one have a tendency to consolidate before making a gapped move - recall the stock moved from 18/19 to 26 after the preannouncement. Based on their psychology, I expect the stock to consolidate on Monday with some upward movement in the afternoon, but the market makers might open the stock around 28 or 29 on tuesday, just to be safe. If the overall market is in a bad mood, they can short the price. If the overall market is in a good mood, they can take it to a higher plane with the accumulated shares. ADPT would have done well this quarter because the server business was extremely good - SGI, SUNW, and MSFT - the numbers were great. The disk drive sector has also been doing extremely well because all of the disk drive companies have produced excellent numbers including WDC. What about the next quarter? because the market would be focusing on the oncoming quarters and not on this one since the numbers had already been out. The conference calls of both the server companies and the diskdrive companies have been extremely positive so far. ADPT has shed all the unwanted fat and is focusing on its core business. The estimated future revenues are extremely conservative and so the tone of the conference will definitely be extremely encouraging. Lastly, both smart money (which is waiting to get into brick and mortar companies) and the money which is getting out of the internet stocks will find ADPT very attractive with the blooming internet business. Additionally, very rarely do companies invite everyone to take part in the conference calls. I have seen companies releasing their reports in the middle of the market for fear of getting punished and I have also seen companies blocking out the press and the individuals from taking part if they think that there is going to be some negative news. That ADPT is ready to make its conference call accessible to everyone is an indication that they have faith in their performance in the oncoming quarters also. Just hang on. In my two cents worth of opinion, we would see 29 as the opening price on Tuesday whatever be the mood of the market on Monday. Dr. S. Vanniarajan