Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High Plains Drifter who wrote (91152)	1/25/1999 12:04:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 176387

Well from the looks of it you may be retiring in 10 years barring any unforeseen disasters of course.<eom>

To: High Plains Drifter who wrote (91152)	1/25/1999 8:53:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Roadmax, I assume that you mean that the stock will split four times (at 2:1) and be worth about what it is now per share. Well, that would mean that your DELL holdings in total would be worth 16 times what they are now. That projection requires Dell's stock price to grow at an annualized rate of about 32% per year, and if the past is any guide, it seems possible at first glance. But in order to do this, Dell will probably need to move into some new high growth areas, because that kind of growth over a 10 year period (I'm now talking about sales) would become about 30% of the industry as a whole. Current industry forecasts are for growth at around 17% per annum, which means that the industry as a whole would grow to about 4.8 times its current size. Given the relatively small potential market at that point it is doubtful that Dell would command the kinds of multiples it does today. I personally look for Dell to have around 25% market share in five years which implies a growth rate of about 43.5%. But I think that you can see that these kinds of rates are not sustainable over the long run. You cannot grow faster than the overall market forever. That's why it is important that Dell identify such opportunities soon. TTFN, CTC