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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boca_PETE who wrote (3006)	2/2/1999 3:22:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 15132

Pete, (This reply is tardy due to my having had to travel to So. Cal. on family business. Man! They drive fast there. I was probably the only guy on the freeway wishing for a traffic jam.) I too am interested in Brinker's model. I am a paradigmophile, of sorts. Some comments on your posting: 1. We don't really know how he weights each of the major factors. Right? Has he said each is weighted at 25%? Furthermore, we don't know how each factor relates to the whole. Is the relation summative or is there some form of interaction between factors that generates a sign of bull, top, bear, or bottom. 2. What is also really interesting, I think, is the make-up of each of the factors. For example, is the factor called sentiment only comprised of the ratio of bulls to bears? That's what he mentions mostly but I really doubt that it is that simple. I reckon there are other elements such as, for example, mutual fund cash levels. And again, a key is the weighting each is given. 3. How does he model market behaviour? Seat of his pants? I doubt it. I reckon he uses some form of statistical modeling. Ciao, David Todtman