To: Jay Lowe who wrote (4822 ) 1/27/1999 6:51:00 PM From: Jay Lowe Read Replies (6) | Respond to of 29970
There's lots of apples and oranges comparisons being made here. Let's try to keep the issues and claims somewhat clear, eh?Cable vs. DSL What is better? Multi-drop over coax or point-to-point over existing copper? What are the speed/cost tradeoffs over existing and new plant? The Last Mile thread is home to this discussion.Subject 4754 ATHM's version of cable vs AOL et al's, version of DSL There are many issues involved here; it's quite a furball. One of the clearest is that ATHM has developed the business model and network infrastructure to support fast connections from source-to-user. ATHM currently has a 6-12 month lead in technology. AOL, SBC, BA, and many others are playing catch-up. Their challenge is to develop the broadband service structure that ATHM already has... their limitation is that they operate in a business model where they do not control all the pieces. In other words, ATHM is homogeneous, the DSL players face a more heterogeneous situation. ATHM consciously seeks to provide the user a high-speed experience which travels completely over ATHM's wires, servers, and business relationships. AOL has the same concept of insularity. The RBOCs and indepedents have no such concept. ATHM's capability is likely to be leveraged by AT&T into a New Media future where all of your core media experiences are provided under one umbrella, including new generation telephone services and a wide range of other media services. The triad of AT&T/TCI/ATHM have a 12-18 month lead on the field in terms of business readiness to move in the New Media direction. AOL is less connected to the New Media future at this time, but has demonstrated conclusive agility. AOL's leaner, meaner management style may overcome the Triad's inherent advantages, but only by (1) quickly opening their business concept to New Media partnerships, and (2) developing "phone company" telephony options probably in association with the RBOCs. The other DSL players have no unified vision and no concensual process for developing one. Microsoft or AOL may have a role to play by stepping forward with a plan to scoop the Triad with an organized open-systems architecture encompassing the broadband, New Media, and new telephony future. Such a plan would have immense power if it provided a role for all existing players to fit into a new paradigm. Such a New Media Architecture will happen ... whether by design or by default is unforseeable. If it develops quickly, then the Triad's existing potential for near-monopoly of consumer New Media is defused. Both cable and DSL have very large existing subscriber bases ... via the cable MSO's and the telcos. Both services are very significant improvements over existing technology and both will be popular. Neither service is capable of fulfilling demand at such a rate as to effectively exclude the other. Both services have certain advantages in specific situations. Both services expect to be obsoleted by newer technologies in the 5-8 year timeframe. Neither service has yet demonstrated that it will uniquely benefit from future technology waves. Both services have options whereby a graceful transition to even higher levels of service are possible. The short and long term success of both services is likely to be governed far more by business factors than by the technology employed. One of the few things completely known is that subscribers tend to stick to their existing services where the alternatives are not conclusively better. So the immediate goal is to grab as many subscribers as possible. And ... the market does not yet understand the significance of these services ... they are the next wave of the information revolution.